Here we go again with some Saturday Smugness for everyone as we look at the upcoming WNBA playoffs, which start tomorrow. The regular season was a little weird, with a two-week break before the final four games of the season to allow for the FIBA Worlds, but here we are at the end of line with everything laid out in front of us now. Oh, and by the way, the Golden State Valkyries finished with a 32-12 record to claim the No. 2 overall seed in the postseason, so our prediction sequence was … fine.

But we digress. These are our predictions for the three rounds of action in the WNBA championship chase:

  • Quarterfinals (best of three): No. 1 Minnesota over No. 8 New York in three games; No. 2 Golden State over No. 7 Dallas in two games; No. 3 Las Vegas over No. 6 Indiana in three games; No. 4 Atlanta over No. 5 Washington in two games.
  • Semifinals (best of five): No. 1 Minnesota over No. 4 Atlanta in five games; No. 3 Las Vegas over No. 2 Golden State in four games.
  • Finals (best of seven): No. 3 Las Vegas over No. 1 Minnesota in six games.

Playing a best of three in the first round is tough, with the H-A-H format, and we see the Liberty as a tough, perhaps-now-healthy threat to take out the Lynx, who have had their own issues with health down the stretch. Also, despite the Aces’ status as defending champions, the three-game series format is just oddly dangerous, so you just never know with a team like the Fever who run very hot and cold. The Mystics are actually the “worst” playoff team based on sabermetrics, so that series was easier to pick a winner.

The Valkyries have gone 22-5 over the final two thirds of the regular season, and even though within each game they play, they are just as streaky as the Indiana squad, we still don’t see them having trouble with the Wings, whose roster is still just lacking a lot of high-end talent. Golden State gets it done with a ten-deep rotation, which should now be rested and well after the FIBA Worlds. So all this explains away our picks for the quarterfinals. We noticed we didn’t pick any upsets, but that’s just the way it goes here.

In the semis, though, we do pick an upset: the Valkyries have no answer for A’ja Wilson, not that any other team in the league does. The Aces will not have home court here, so after the first two games are split in the Bay Area, we expect Las Vegas to close out Golden State in its own arena. Meanwhile, it’s not going to be easy for the Lynx to take out the Dream, who have a Big 3 to contend with every night. Atlanta is building something special, but it’s not quite the year yet for this squad. Maybe next year?

And so in the end, we have the matchup in the Finals that everyone really wanted last year and did not get. Again, consistency has been more on the side of the Aces lately, with the Lynx sort of hanging on to the best record in the end. We have to remember that only seven games separated these top eight teams in the standings at the end, and Minnesota’s two-game edge over Las Vegas was not significant. Wilson will be the MVP again, as her Player Efficiency Rating and Win Share marks dominated the league again.

She’s that good, and she has some great teammates to share the load with her, too: the Aces will win their fourth title in five years.