This is the third time on WNBA Tuesday that we’ve devoted space to predicting the final record for the 2026 Golden State Valkyries. The first time we landed on 31 victories, and the second time we came up with 32 wins. With the whole league on a break for the FIBA Worlds, it’s our last chance to project how the Valkyries will do in their final four matchups when play resumes on September 18. With a 29-11 record currently, Golden State sits in second place overall, two games ahead of the Las Vegas Aces.

It’s key for the Valkyries to stay ahead of the defending champions, yet Golden State also finds itself just two games behind the Minnesota Lynx for the best record in the WNBA. This puts the organization in a delicate position, trying to protect the No. 2 seed while also not wanting to overlook the possibility of finishing atop the standings. The Lynx schedule is a lot harder in terms of games remaining than that of the Valkyries, so there are options aplenty for how the regular season will end in terms of playoffs.

To wit, Minnesota must play No. 6 New York at home, followed by No. 14 Connecticut and No. 5 Indiana on the road. Then, the Lynx return home to finish with another game against the Fever. In all likelihood, Minnesota goes W-W-L-W there, even with Indiana fighting for a Top 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. That means Golden State probably can’t pass the Lynx in the standings, even with four victories of their own, which is quite probable all things considered here.

The Valkyries face No. 9 Portland and No. 15 Seattle at home, followed by matchups against the Fire and No. 11 Los Angeles on the road. With all those teams at least eight games under .500 right now, Golden State could sweep the lot if it chose to play at full strength the whole way in—risking injuries in the process. With the top seed realistically out of reach, even with the Lynx resting their own players for the postseason, the Valkyries need to protect that two-game edge on the Aces, so that’s the next thing to view.

Las Vegas closes with just as an easy slate as Golden State: at the Storm, home against Seattle, home against the Sparks, and on the road against No. 12 Phoenix. One has to assume the Aces will win all four of those games, so the Golden State brass has to make sure they win at least three of their final four games to keep that No. 2 seed. That is paramount, in the final conclusion here, based on the mathematical probabilities for the closing schedules listed above, and that is our assumption now in predicting these games.

  • September 18 vs. Portland: The Valkyries should be favored by close to 15 points in this one, so it’s a good rest opportunity and a probable victory.
  • September 19 vs. Seattle: The line should larger for Golden State’s home finale, and the team probably wants everyone to play in this one, too, even with a playoff berth locked up and home postseason games ahead. Again, a very probable win.
  • September 22 at Portland: On the road, the Valkyries could be vulnerable in this one, especially if they decide to rest some players (probable) with more knowledge of where they stand in the seedings. Still … they’d be nine-point favorites here.
  • September 24 at Los Angeles: If any game can be sacrificed, it’s this one—assuming Golden State has won the prior three games and clinched the No. 2 spot at this point. The same nine-point edge applies, but it all depends on circumstances.

One thing to keep in mind is that the Aces swept the Valkyries this year in their three games, so Las Vegas holds a tiebreaker on Golden State. Thus, it’s significantly vital for Golden State to finish one game ahead of the defending champions in the standings. Therefore, we see it as imperative for the Valkyries to win all four of their games—for momentum and security. Now, can they do that by resting key players in some of these games, in rotation? Probably. The roster goes ten deep, so giving a night off can rotate.

Forward Gabby Williams has been banged up and rested the last game, a 17-point win on the road against Portland, for example. We trust Head Coach Natalie Nakase and her staff to make matchup-driven, strategic decisions in which players to rest on which nights against which teams in order to maximize the mathematical probabilities of winning all four of these final contests. Even if we don’t always understand the thought processes, the results speak for themselves: this organization knows what it is doing here.

So, there you have our final analysis: Golden State wins all four of its final games to finish with a 33-11 record and the No. 2 overall seed for the WNBA postseason. That guarantees them vital home-court advantage through to a potential Finals matchup against the Lynx, and if another team happens to eliminate Minnesota, maybe the Valkyries could get home court for the championship round. And wouldn’t that be something? We don’t want to guess too far in advance, so we will stop here for now.

We will be back with playoff predictions when the time comes in three weeks; we promise.