A few weeks ago on WNBA Tuesday, we took a crack at predicting the Golden State Valkyries’ final record, and we came up with 31-13 via sabermetric data and common sense, combined. Today, we’re going to revisit that prediction and revise it as necessary. Today, the team’s record stands at 23-9 with 12 games left in the regular-season, which doesn’t seem like a lot. Next year, the WNBA adds another expansion team and ups its schedule to a 50-contest slate, and that creeps something closer to a long grind.

For now, 44 games feels like a short sprint in comparison to the standard length of seasons in men’s professional sports leagues across North America. Of course, the NFL plays just 17 games, but football is a different beast in terms of required recovery time between matchups. The NBA and the NHL play 82-game seasons, and in basketball especially, it seems like that is even tough on the modern-day athlete, despite all the comforts and medical support money can buy. Baseball? That’s a 162-game marathon, yo.

When the WNBA is done adding expansion teams by 2028, an 18-team league should play no more than 60 times during a regular season stretching from May to September, really, if the league doesn’t want to see its star players dropping like flies to injury. A good college women’s team plays only 35-plus games maximum, so extending the professional season past 50 games is playing with fire in a lot of ways. Just like the men’s pro leagues, college kids need to work on strength training to “up” their bodies right.

Alas, we digress … our focus here is the Valkyries’ remaining schedule, and this is the way we see it this week:

  • Wins (9): Chicago, Dallas, @ Chicago, @ Connecticut, @ Portland, Portland, Seattle, @ Portland, @ Los Angeles
  • Losses (3): Minnesota, @ Minnesota, @ New York

Golden State is in second place, and they will clinch a playoff spot soon; they currently have an 11.5-game cushion, so they could clinch as early tonight or tomorrow, depending on other game outcomes and their home date with the Chicago Sky on Wednesday evening at Ballhalla. Finishing in the top four is paramount, considering the home-court advantage in at least the first round of the three-round, eight-team postseason tournament. Our projections above are strictly mathematical, and they result in a 32-12 finish.

Now, once the Valkyries clinch a playoff spot, they will strategically aim for the best top-four finish while also protecting their regular rotation from undue fatigue/injury. We will point out that Golden State is 0-8 against Minnesota in its short history, including the first-round, two-game sweep last season in the playoffs. The Lynx seem to have the number of the Valkyries, and we can’t see that changing any time soon, even if both teams are postseason bound and resting some players in their two matchups.

The standings are key, as Las Vegas is third right now, 1.5 games behind Golden State, and they’re the defending champs that can never be taken lightly. The Valkyries then have a three-game lead on fourth place, currently occupied right now by both the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream—two teams the league has a ve$ted interest in promoting, due to the presence of controversial “stars” on each team, respectively (you know of whom we speak). The league also knows GSV thrive$, win or lose.

So, we think it’s doable road ahead for the Valkyries, with no games remaining against any of the teams behind them in the chase for first-round, home-court advantage. Golden State actually only has four games left against probably playoff teams, which should work to its advantage if it can hold serve on the eight games against the weaker teams on the schedule. We know the Valkyries are a flawed team, but they are coached, seemingly flawlessly, by Natalie Nakase and her staff, just like last season.

Throwing in all this “common sense” doesn’t change our projection now, and if Golden State wins nine more games, there’s no way the Fever can pass them in the standings, since the Valkyries won the season series there (again). Golden State is 5-1 against Indiana in its brief existence, while this season, the Dream lost all three of its games to the Valkyries. Thus, GSV holds the tiebreaks against both Atlanta and Indiana, so if the Golden State squad just takes care of business, it will have home-court love.

That’s our take then: 32-12 and no worse than third place in the final standings. We will check in again on September 1 to update.