Our prognostication and pronouncement pieces known as the Wednesday Wizengamot have been absent for a long time. We really don’t have a reason why this has happened, but with the completion of our MNC Wednesday miniseries, we can get back to it now on Hump Day as much as possible. Today, we look at the MLB team with the best record in the American League: the Tampa Bay Rays. And like we predicted last year with the similar-payroll Milwaukee Brewers, we’re going to argue why they won’t win it all.

[And we hate this for the Tampa franchise and all of MLB, really. Thanks, Bud Selig.]

The Rays have a six-game lead in the AL East Division, and with their 73 victories, they’re 12 games better than either of the other two division leaders right now, the Chicago White Sox (61) and the Houston Trashstros (61). It would be a shocker if the Tampa Bay organization does not clinch the top seed in the league playoffs. However, as we often point out, the combination of television market size and payroll heft is not on the Rays’ side when it comes to reaching, let alone winning, the World Series. Think about it.

One team in the last three decades or so outside a Top 10 TV market has won the World Series (Kansas City). One team outside the top echelon of payroll rankings has won the Fall Classic during roughly the same time frame (Houston)—and that title comes with an asterisk, of course. Cross reference these two historical realities/trends with the facts that Tampa is the No. 11 TV market with the 8th-lowest payroll. The size of the television audience surprises us, as the region has seen tremendous growth since Covid.

We didn’t realize the Tampa-St. Pete metropolitan area had grown so large in the last handful of years, but old folks and fools like Florida, yo. Plus, for television-ratings purposes, the metro area also includes Sarasota. Why so many people flock to this humidity-from-hell locale is a mystery to us, as we’ve never liked the heat, even when we were teenage lifeguards in Northern California 40 years ago! But we digress … the fact the Rays play in a TV market that large now could have a positive impact here.

However, there is still the payroll issue: despite the regional growth, the team is still a lower-spending team, although not as low as it has been in the past. The stadium issues there have been myriad, and with a solution to that perpetual challenge perhaps on the horizon—like the erstwhile Oakland Athletics, soon to be the Las Vegas A’s—perhaps the Tampa Bay franchise is headed for greener pastures (pun intended). Could it happen as soon as October 2026? Again, the TV market growth is very significant, truly.

Being just outside the Top 10 can certainly increases the Rays’ chances of making it to the World Series, while the payroll dynamic will hurt them, of course. We’re not betting folks, so we still wouldn’t bet on Tampa Bay winning it all just yet. If the region happens to squeeze past the Boston metro area, currently the No. 10 TV market (and yes, it used to be higher, so perhaps a lot of Massholes have left the Northeast for the Southeast?), then the team formerly known as the Devil Rays may just crack the combo.

However, until then, we’re still thinking the AL teams in Chicago (No. 3 TV market), Houston (No. 6), and New York (No. 1) are better bets for the Fall Classic. The Yankees are the team in second place among AL East behemoths, and as of today, they’re the favorites to claim the top wild-card spot in the postseason. The Boston Red Sox are projected, currently, to grab the second wild card, and the Detroit Tigers the third, playing in the No. 14 market. The Yankees, the Sox, and the Astros have Top 10 payrolls.

Thus, the permutations here are myriad, and the road will be fraught with challenges for Tampa Bay. Generally, we have rooted for the Rays, always, as the underdog, and we still will—so we’re happy to be wrong here, if that’s the case. We just don’t see it … yet.