It’s that time of year again on MLB Monday, when we check out how the highest-spending teams are doing—and how the lowest spenders are getting along, as well. We like doing this since the combination for winning the World Series has been clear for about three decades now: spend a lot of money and reside in a Top 10 television market. With the Los Angeles Dodgers going for the sport’s first three-peat title run since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees this year, this analysis more relevant than ever, really, eh?

First, the top spenders and their current win-loss record(s):

  • New York Mets: $328.3M, 35 wins, $9.4M per victory
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: $302.6M, 54 wins, $5.6M per victory
  • New York Yankees: $292.4M, 48 wins, $5.9M per victory
  • Toronto Blue Jays: $281.9M, 39 wins, $7.2M per victory
  • Philadelphia Phillies: $281.0M, 47 wins, $6.0M per victory
  • Atlanta Braves: $269.2M, 49 wins, $5.5M per victory
  • Houston Astros: $239.4M, 42 wins, $5.7M per victory
  • Chicago Cubs: $224.1M, 46 wins, $4.9M per victory
  • San Diego Padres: $212.7M, 43 wins, $4.9M per victory
  • Detroit Tigers: $208.3M, 35 wins, $6.0M per victory
  • San Francisco Giants: $198.4M, 35 wins, $5.7 per victory
  • Boston Red Sox: $196.8M, 36 wins, $5.5M per victory
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: $190.4M, 41 wins, $4.6M per victory
  • Texas Rangers: $187.6M, 42 wins, $4.5M per victory
  • Los Angeles Angels: $174.9M, 36 wins, $4.9M per victory

What do we see above? Well, the Mets are throwing money away, while the Cubs seem to have found the superior balance here, really. It’s interesting to see the Dodgers and the Giants spending roughly the same amount of cash per win—but 18.5 games separate them in the NL West Division standings. The Blue Jays are the other big losers here, coming off that seven-game World Series loss last fall. Toronto has not been able to keep the momentum rolling from that amazing postseason run to this summer.

Now, these are lowest spenders and their standing:

  • Baltimore Orioles: $166.4M, 39 wins, $4.3M per victory
  • Seattle Mariners: $163.3M, 42 wins, $3.9M per victory
  • Kansas City Royals: $148.8M, 35 wins, $4.3M per victory
  • Cincinnati Reds: $133.1M, 39 wins, $3.4M per victory
  • Milwaukee Brewers: $132.8M, 50 wins, $2.7M per victory
  • Colorado Rockies: $117.3, 33 wins, $3.6M per victory
  • Minnesota Twins: $105.7M, 40 wins, $2.6M per victory
  • Tampa Bay Rays: $102.3M, 48 wins, $2.1M per victory
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: $101.5M, 42 wins, $2.4M per victory
  • [Las Vegas] Athletics: $95.0M, 40 wins, $2.4M per victory
  • St. Louis Cardinals: $94.3M, 43 wins, $2.2M per victory
  • Washington Nationals: $92.8M, 43 wins, $2.2M per victory
  • Chicago White Sox: $91.2M, 43 wins, $2.1M per victory
  • Miami Marlins: $80.4M, 44 wins, $1.8M per victory
  • Cleveland Guardians: $79.7M, 44 wins, $1.8M per victory

What do we see here? Well, we see a lot of good teams winning quite efficiently, when it comes to fiscal responsibility—whether out of necessity or not. The bottom nine teams in overall payroll all have won at least 40 games, and they’re coming in at $2.6M or less per win, which no team in the top half of the MLB spending hierarchy can come close to matching. With 48 victories so far and a first-place standing in the AL East Division, the Rays are doing their thing, again. The Brewers also are sustaining well, too.

Now, when we cross reference this data with the Top 10 US TV markets (plus Toronto), which has been the key element in deciding the vast majority of the last 30 World Series champions, what do we discover based on sabermetric projections for the rest of the season?

  • New York: The Yankees have a 21.2-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Los Angeles: The Dodgers have a 24.4-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Chicago: The Cubs and the White Sox have a combined 6.8-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Dallas: The Rangers have a 1.5-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Philadelphia: The Phillies have a 1.8-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Houston: The Trashstros have a 0.6-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Atlanta: The Braves have a 11.1-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Washington, DC: The Nats have a 0.3-percent chance to win the championship.
  • Boston: The Red Sox have a 1.0-percent chance to win the championship.
  • San Francisco: The Giants have less than a 0.1-percent chance to win the championship.
    • Toronto (Canada): The Jay have a 0.4-percent chance to win the championship.

So, all integral factors considered, these are the clear-cut favorites for the Series win in late October/early November: the Dodgers, the Yankees, and the Braves. They spend the money; they’re getting results; and they play in the right markets for maximum MLB profiteering in line with historical trends since the Fall Classic was canceled in 1994. If you’re the betting type, wager on the two combos here: Los Angeles vs. New York or Atlanta vs. New York. The odds may short, but the probabilities are there, clearly.

Maybe the Cubs can sneak in there, for we know what happened to the Brewers last year, despite their regular season. But there are only four other AL teams above 1.5-percent odds right now to win it all: Cleveland (5.5); Tampa (3.8); Seattle (3.5); and Chicago (3.2). Of those, only the Pale Hose play in a major TV market. We almost saw the Mariners make the World Series for the first time ever last year, but it would be a long shot for anyone in the AL to upset the Yankees based on this midseason analysis.

Only time will tell, of course, but this is a fun exercise nonetheless. Enjoy it … we will watch from afar with casual interest, obvi.