It’s time now to do our annual thing on MLB Monday, where we predict the World Series based on the past 30-plus years of results. There are 12 teams in the baseball postseason, and the verified historical trends have shown us that teams outside of the top television markets rarely win the Fall Classic anymore—and franchises outside the top payroll rankings rarely do, either. While the Los Angeles Dodgers aim for a rare three-peat championship, there are plenty of other teams who might be able to usurp them.

Here is an alphabetical list of the playoff teams with their regular-season sabermetric, TV market size, and payroll rankings:

  • Atlanta Braves: 4th, 7th, 6th
  • Boston Red Sox: 7th, 10th, 12th
  • Chicago Cubs: 3rd, 3rd, 7th
  • Chicago White Sox: 9th, 3rd, 26th
  • Cleveland Guardians: 16th, 19th, 30th
  • Houston Astros: 21st, 6th, 8th
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 2nd, 2nd, 1st
  • Milwaukee Brewers: 1st, 38th, 19th
  • New York Yankees: 5th, 1st, 3rd
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 12th, 5th, 4th
  • San Diego Padres: 8th, 30th, 9th
  • Tampa Bay Rays: 6th, 11th, 23rd

What do we see here? A lot of different rankings, to start, and honestly, any team with a double-digit ranking in any of these three categories is going to be an improbable champion. That really leaves us with only the Braves, the Cubs, the Dodgers, and the Yankees as the most-likely champions in a month’s time. We’re not saying the other eight organizations don’t have a chance; we’re just saying it will take multiple minor miracles for those teams to win the World Series. That’s just historical-trend fact right now.

So, let’s organize the 12 contenders into tiers of probability next, in order within each echelon:

  • Tier 1: Los Angeles, New York, Chicago (NL), Atlanta
  • Tier 2: Philadelphia, Boston, Houston, Chicago (AL)
  • Tier 3: Tampa Bay, San Diego, Milwaukee, Cleveland

The Guardians have the lowest payroll, the second-lowest sabermetric rating, and the third-smallest TV market. We’d love to see them win, as the franchise hasn’t won the Fall Classic since 1948, but the odds are very, very minimal here. The Brewers had the best regular season, but the smallest TV market and the fourth-lowest payroll here hurt them in the key factors. And remember, the same thing happened last year, with Milwaukee having a great season only to get swept in the National League playoffs by L.A.

The Padres, like the Brewers, have never won the Series, and their payroll/sabermetric combination is nice. But that small TV market hurts them. The Rays, despite the best record in the American League, are only sixth in sabermetric profiling, although that TV market is growing even if the payroll still is in the bottom third of the sport. Tampa Bay has never won the MLB championship, although the area’s football and hockey teams have won multiple titles in those respective sports. Soon, Rays, soon.

Bet on that bottom tier at your own risk (although don’t bet at all, please, because it’s not wise to do).

The middle tier is fascinating, as a team like the Phillies could make a decent run if their stars align. They had a bad finish to the regular season, hurting the sabermetrics, but everything else is in line. The Red Sox aren’t the powerhouse they were when they were cheating, of course, so we’re not thinking highly of them in this October sweepstakes. The Astros are in the same boat as the Phillies—but with less actual talent on the roster. And the White Sox are just a few years removed from being a historical disgrace.

Basically, we see these teams—which all have won the Series since 2005—as unrealistic threats to the top-tier quartet.

It’s hard to pick against the Dodgers, but if we had to do so, we’re looking at Atlanta to be the team to do it. All the AL teams are flawed, and one of them has to make the World Series by rule, yet we expect the eventual champ to come out of the senior circuit. We certainly think the Brewers can do it; we just don’t think they will, based on historical trends since the 1994 strike/lockout. In order, we see the Dodgers, the Braves, and the Cubs as the top three teams in this postseason tournament of insanity about to start.

In that order. We’d love to see the Rays win, and we’d love to see the Guardians emerge victorious, too. But our heads say it’s going to be Los Angeles again, because after all, we have learned to follow the money, and a historic three-peat effort would be pretty astronomically lucrative to both the sports itself and the worldwide appeal of the Dodgers’ international roster of players. So be it. And in the end, please remember our site’s tagline: “often wrong, never in doubt …” Don’t say we didn’t warn you, either.