Back we are for WNBA Tuesday today, and it’s time check in with the Golden State Valkyries, currently with a 10-7 record and sitting tied for sixth in the league, one game ahead of the eighth-place team. Sabermetrically, the team should be 12-5 based on scoring differential, but the Valkyries are being held by back a few fatal flaws: primarily, shooting percentage where Golden State is dead last in the 15-team league at 40.6 percent, and secondarily, their penchant for chucking up three-point shots (see below).

The Valkyries are good at getting shots off, as they rank fourth overall in shot attempts, but when you’re converting a league-worst number of those shots, it makes it hard(er) to score enough points to win. As a result, the team is just 3-5 in games decided by single digits. A basketball squad wants to at least break even in those close games, so Golden State is under par there. The chucker mentality is a big problem, as the Valkyries attempt 3.3 more three pointers than any other team—but convert just 35.3 percent.

Mathematically, an individual—and thus, a team—should be much closer to 40 percent in order to make the attempt(s) worthwhile, as passing the ball for a shot attempt closer to the hoop results in more points per possession on average that way. The reality is that the Golden State players aren’t good enough to be taking that many threes, and it’s costing the team points which hurt its ability to win close games. Let’s examine some of the biggest chuckers on the Valkyries:

  • Forward Cecilia Zandalasini: A career 39.2-percent shooter from beyond the arc, she’s barely making 30 percent this year while throwing up four attempts per game. Her numbers should improve over the rest of the season.
  • Forward Kayla Thornton: A career 32.0-percent shooter from downtown, she shouldn’t be taking these shots at all. She’s making 32.9 percent of them this year, but she’s taking 4.5 of them per game. The math there is not good.
  • Guard Veronica Burton: Normally, she’s the heart and soul of this team, but VB is hitting just 34.2 percent of her 4.3 three-point attempts per game. Oddly, that’s better than her career mark (32.8). She should rethink some of those attempts.
  • Forward Gabby Williams: Her career mark (29.0 percent) tells us she should not be taking these shots ever, as it is the worst of this group. The fact she is converting 35.9 percent of them this year, on 5.4 attempts per game, also informs us that she’s playing over her head right now, and the conversation rate will soon experience a regression to the mean.

So, these are four players taking a combined 18.2 three pointers a game, while none of them are converting them at an acceptable rate—based on mathematical realities for the benefits of taking the three. Of course, the kicker is that the team also is dead last in the WNBA for two-point shot rates at 45.1 percent. Perhaps it’s a situation of “pick your poison” although the math still suggests the team is better off taking more two pointers and fewer three pointers. This is clearly something the coaching staff needs to fix.

While the Golden State defense remains tops in the league for the fewest points allowed per game, the Valkyries also struggle with free-throw percentage (10th in the league at 76.8 percent); rebounding (ninth in the league at 33.9 per game); assists (dead last at 15.9 per game, as this is an offshoot of the shooting percentage issue); steals (11th in the league at 6.9 per game); and blocks (9th in the league at 4.0 per game). The team plays great defense even without being good at that those defensive categories, weirdly.

Thus, all data considered, the Golden State roster needs to work on passing better and taking higher-percentage shots in order to overcome the scoring problems that plague them this season (and also did last season, in truth, when they also finished dead last in shooting percentage at 40.7). Again, considering this franchise has almost nothing to show for its two drafts, the front office really has blown it in constructing a balanced roster that can play both high-level defense—and make a decent number of shot attempts.

A team wants to make 40 percent of its threes, 50 percent of its twos, and 80 percent of its free throws. The Valkyries need help.