We have reached another year deeper into the past today on MNC Wednesday. Our paternal grandparents were toddlers way back then—and not even living in this country? Ah, the mysteries of the past. There are secrets even the Internet cannot discover, for sure. Alas, we can pinpoint a mythical national champion in college football, however, because we have enough concrete data there to use modern analysis and determine a “winner” of the crown! Everyone is not a winner here, of course.

The 1907 MNC: Yale (Helms, NCF); Carlisle (DMP)

The Yale Bulldogs (9-0-1, No. 4 SRS, No. 18 SOS) were the consensus pick for the MNC by the experts for this season of amateur football at the collegiate level—just like the 1909 season. We know what happened there, so will the Ivy League school have better fortune here? Well, Yale played three small schools and only two road games (one was a scoreless tie against No. 14 Army). The Bulldogs gave up 10 points all season while tossing nine shutouts, but is there room for others?

We always have to say, “Yes!”—so here is our list of teams under consideration:

  • Sewanee (8-1): No. 1 SRS, No. 15 SOS (out of 68)
  • Pennsylvania (11-1): No. 2, No. 7
  • Yale (9-0-1): No. 4, No. 18
  • Carlisle (10-1): No. 5, No. 5
  • Chicago (4-1): No. 6, No. 14
  • Vanderbilt (5-1-1): No. 7, No. 20

As we go back in years, it’s tougher because of uneven scheduling, of course, but these are really the best of the best for 1907. So, let’s start with the Tigers: they opened with a small school, closed with seven straight road games, and lost the last matchup of the season at Vanderbilt. That head-to-head loss eliminates them, despite the top sabermetric profile. The Quakers played two small schools and only one road game, while losing to the Indians at home by 20 points. Again, head-to-head matters.

We know the Yale profile, and there’s nothing disqualifying in it … yet? As for Carlisle, it played two small schools and seven games away from home. The Indians’ sole blemish came on the road against No. 3 Princeton, which itself had two losses—including one to the Bulldogs. So there is no shame in Carlisle’s profile, and right now it looks stronger. The Indians are still in it. The Maroons have the same issue as they did in 1908: fewest games played among TUCs. But their one loss? To Carlisle.

Finally, we have the Commodores: with a loss to No. 10 Michigan at home and a tie to No. 23 Navy on the road, they don’t the SOS to overcome those blemishes in a comparison with Carlisle. Thus, that reduces us to our final two: the Bulldogs and the Indians. The Carlisle loss to Princeton doesn’t hurt them, because the overall SOS is vastly superior to Yale’s mark. On the other hand, the Bulldogs have the slight overall sabermetric edge: 0.55 points on a neutral field. That is very minimalist, yo.

In the end, Carlisle’s significantly superior SOS matters more, plus the fact the Indians had to go on the road for seven of their 11 contests. They played the entire season with significant disadvantages and still came out to being one of the top sabermetric teams in the nation. That is good enough for us, albeit a little controversial. This is like BYU winning the 1984 MNC via the pollsters at the time (right or wrong). However, we feel pretty confident in this decision: congrats, Carlisle, on your first title.

And yes, Jim Thorpe was on this team, coached by the legendary Pop Warner. The Indians earned this distinction, period.