We will never understand why the NHL playoffs start the second round before the first round is complete, but alas, once again, this predictive piece now going live on Sunday Surmising is a tad bit “stale” in a certain way, but we don’t care. We stand by whatever our projections are, because there’s no money involved, and? It’s just another day of the week to us, really. We can, however, assess our first-round ideas now and calculate them out in print before we continue to embarrass ourselves in the next round of playoffs.

For our first-round dreams, we blew the Dallas and Edmonton series, hard, for sure, while we also missed the Utah series. So, in the Western Conference, we went 1-for-4, which is one of our worst efforts, ever. We did nail the Colorado sweep, on target, but that’s not saying much, because probably everyone else did, too. In the Eastern Conference? We picked Buffalo and Carolina correctly, but we didn’t get the number of games right. We blew the Pennsylvania series, and we just missed the Tampa Bay call.

So … not so hot, and we think it’s our worst picks ever in this space. Oh well, sometimes, you just can’t win for trying. Onward!

Minnesota vs. Colorado: This is a matchup between the No. 1 and No. 3 teams in the Western Conference, and on paper, the Avalanche should roll. They have the overall sabermetric edge (plus-0.79 goals per game); the regulation-wins advantage (48-31); and the scoring-differential superiority (plus-99 to plus-32). We are impressed that the Wild beat the Stars in the first round, but we just cannot see Colorado pulling the same disappearing act against Minnesota here—not at all. The Avs roll. Colorado in five.

Vegas vs. Anaheim: The Ducks were a below-average team during the regular season, sabermetrically speaking, so the fact Anaheim knocked off the Oilers is just kind of shocking. The Golden Knights were above average by the same measure, but we’re still surprised they took out the Mammoth. So who wins here? Well, Vegas has all the edges (plus-0.37 goals per game, a four-victory advantage in RWs, and a 30-goal edge in scoring differential). So, logic says the Golden Knights. Vegas in seven.

Carolina vs. Philadelphia: The Flyers were the No. 9 team in the Eastern Conference this season, based on sabermetrics, and they beat down the No. 6 team in the first round. However, the Hurricanes are the No. 2 team in this bracket, and they have the upper hand in all categories—plus-0.56 goals per game, a 12-victory advantage in RWs, and a 49-goal edge in scoring differential. Throw in the home ice, and we really don’t see Philly pulling off a second-round upset here at all. Nope. Carolina in five.

Buffalo vs. Montréal: Well, the Canadiens are the last Team of the North standing here as they took out the No. 1 sabermetric team in the Eastern Conference (Tampa Bay). However, they face a tough opponent in the Sabres, who have the numbers on their side. No surprise there, perhaps, but the data doesn’t lie (plus-0.22 goals per game, an eight-victory advantage in RWs, and a 20-goal edge in scoring differential). Les Habs may be tired after their seven-game series, too. But still … hmmm. Buffalo in seven.