Here we go again.
The NHL Saturday tradition continues: “Our dream is to someday nail all 15 series matchups, even though we know that’s a fruitless exercise in futility every year. Still, one can dream big, right? You betcha.” Sometimes, we’re on target; other times, we’re brutally wrong. However, like the same NFL exercise, we must attempt it every year. The time has come today to lay out how we see the Stanley Cup Playoffs will unfold in 2026, although we do undertake this task on a round-by-round basis, to no better joy.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Anaheim Ducks: The team from north of the border here has reached the Finals two years in a row without winning. Sentimental favorites? Perhaps. For starters, the Oilers have home ice; they have a slim sabermetric advantage; and they won six more games in regulation play than the Ducks. All those signs would suggest an Edmonton victory, despite the fact just one point separated them in the standings. Never underestimate the heart of a (near) champion. Edmonton in five.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Utah Mammoth: For the eighth time in the franchise’s nine-season existence, the Golden Knights are going after a second Stanley Cup. However, despite having home ice, they might be on the outs here. The Mammoth are better, sabermetrically speaking, and Utah also delivered three more regulation wins this regular season. We also know, however, that Vegas doesn’t really have the same “home-ice edge” that most NHL teams have. So … yeah, picking the upset here. Utah in six.
Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild: Both these teams were in the top three among Western Conference clubs this year, so it’s not cool to see them having to face each other in the first round. Yet that being said, the Stars have distinct edges here: home ice, solid sabermetric advantages, and a plus-7 RW margin, too. Minnesota is a very good team, but it’s not on Dallas’ level this time around. We don’t like predicting sweeps, because we think those happen unpredictably. Thus, we throw the Wild a bone. Dallas in five.
Colorado Avalanche vs. Los Angeles Kings: Our predictions for the final Western Conference wild-card slot were close enough. The honor of being sacrificial lambs for the Avs goes to the Kings of Los Angeles. This is a huge mismatch in every way: Colorado was, by far, the top sabermetric team in the conference, while L.A. rated out as the ninth-best squad. In fact, the Avs posted 26 (!) more RWs than the Kings did. Let that sink in for a minute, in addition to the associated scoring differentials. Colorado in four.
Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: Ooooh, let the Battle of Pennsylvania begin (said no one ever). The Pens have home ice, but perhaps that means less in a US Route 30 series. Pittsburgh also holds sabermetric and RW advantages over the Flyers. But this rivalry is no joke to the fans of each team, and we expect a serious fight on the ice. The two teams tied in the standings with 98 points apiece, but Pittsburgh should win it—but it won’t be easy, by any definition. Pittsburgh in seven.
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Ottawa Senators: With 99 points in the standings, these Senators are not the usual pushover No. 8 seed in the postseason. In fact, sabermetrics suggests they are the fourth-best team in the Eastern Conference. However, the ‘Canes rate out at No. 2 out east, so there’s that reality, too. Carolina has home ice and a slim RW edge, and we can see this being a close series, despite the Hurricanes’ advantages in all categories we consider important. Still, never sell Ottawa short. Carolina in seven.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montréal Canadians: The last of three Canadian teams in this year’s Cup chase, the Canadiens have the enviable task of facing the top-rated sabermetric team in the conference. Nothing here says Montréal has a chance against a very good Lightning team, but stranger things have happened in the world. Tampa Bay has all three advantages, and the sabermetric/RW categories are firmly in its favor. Still, we hope the Habs put up a decent fight before it ends. Tampa Bay in five.
Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins: Is this like the Bills and Patriots in the NFL? Pretty much. The Sabres made the postseason for the first time in forever, and they’re favored to outlast the Bruins here (home ice, sabermetrics, RW margin). In fact, Buffalo secured nine more regulation victories than Boston did, which is significant. It’s weird how the Bruins reach 100 points on the season in the standings, yet they still only got a wild-card spot. That’s rough. Will inexperience matter? No. Buffalo in five.
There you have it; we will be back in a few weeks to check with the conference semifinals predictions. We know you can’t wait.
