Today on NBA Tuesday, we want to explore and share the realities of the professional basketball postseason, in terms of the annual “math versus money” battle. Last year, we did the same, and we were pretty much spot on. That doesn’t mean we guarantee “success” this year, of course, but it’s … something. Regardless, this is the way we generally see the NBA playoffs taking shape when considering the sabermetric realities for the top teams, while also factoring in the size of their respective TV market sizes.

Eastern Conference

We state this with confidence: we’d be surprised if the Eastern Conference is not won by the Detroit Pistons, the Boston Celtics, or the New York Knicks. Last year, we did get a surprise victor in the Indiana Pacers, a team that really exceeded its mathematical projections to reach Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. That situation was sort of an anomaly, however, both in terms of sabermetrics and circumstance (injuries to opponents and subsequent poor play by those favored opponents). Anything can happen.

But the math does not suggest it. Detroit, Boston, and New York—in that order—are significantly better teams than the rest of the field in the conference bracket. We are surprised that the fourth-best team, sabermetrically speaking, was the Charlotte Hornets, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 10 years. That reality solidifies the top three teams, with the next-best postseason contestant being the Cleveland Cavaliers, who rate 2.27 points per game lower than the Knicks, who trail the Pistons by a 1.48-point margin.

Now, on to the TV markets: Detroit (No. 14), Boston (No. 9), and New York (No. 1) all rate well here, although the NBA probably would prefer a Celtics-Knicks matchup in the Eastern Conference Finals. Yet they won’t get that this season, since the two teams should face each other in the conference semis instead. Also, it should be the Pistons winning their first two series, based on sabermetrics alone, as they are mathematically quite strong, and it would be hard to “eliminate” them, short of multiple injuries.

Western Conference

This is a little more clear, at least mathematically, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs are way ahead of the pack here. As the second-best team in the West, the Spurs have a 3.31-point edge on the third-best team in the conference, the Denver Nuggets. And OKC has a 2.76-point edge on San Antonio, so it’s easy to see the hierarchy here. Last year, the Thunder were so sabermetrically dominant, it was hard to envision the team not advancing to and winning the NBA Finals. Even so …

The Thunder survived a lot of postseason scares, mostly due to OKC’s poor TV-market size (No. 47). Of course, San Antonio is no ratings juggernaut, either: at No. 31, the market is middling, and when the Spurs won NBA titles aplenty (five between 1999 and 2014), it was because of an internationally flavored roster that brought a lot of TV attention from overseas. We’re not sure the San Antonio team has that same appeal now, although they do have a young French star in the league who just won the DPOY vote.

Denver (No. 17) and Houston (No. 6) are the only reasonable upset options in the West, and the math makes it hard to envision those being realistic upset opportunities. The Nuggets won an NBA title recently, too, but it’s been ages since the Rockets have played in the Finals. If there is an upset dark horse here, it’s Houston. But again, the math isn’t favorable: the Thunder would have a 6.17-point edge on the Rockets on a neutral court. That’s a steep hill to climb, even for the often-dubious NBA officiating crews.

Conclusion

We see only six teams with a reasonable probability to make it to the NBA Finals: Detroit, Boston, or New York from the East and OKC, San Antonio, or Houston from the West, with the caveat that the Rockets are the longest shot in this bunch. We have a hunch it will be the Spurs on the one side of the bracket due to the presence of Victor Wembanyama and the fascination that comes along with his novelty, talents, and his European origins/roots, bringing a lot of TV revenue for a league that loves TV revenue.