With the league’s draft next week generating all the news right now for professional football fans, we’re going to use the NFL Thursday space this week to look at Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce from sabermetrical and statistical standpoints. He was a third-round draft pick by the team in Spring 2013, out of the University of Cincinnati, and Kelce spent his age-24, rookie season not playing, really, getting into just one regular-season game without catching a pass or notching a meaningful statistic.

So, who knew he could go on to have such a notable career, really? Well, maybe only Head Coach Andy Reid, as that was his first season in Kansas City, and he turned the Chiefs around from a two-win team in 2012 to an 11-win squad in 2013—with a lot of credit going to the franchise’s acquisition of quarterback Alex Smith after the San Francisco 49ers parted ways with him as a result of their Super Bowl run with Colin Kaepernick (and then-49ers HC Jim Harbaugh being the QB killer he has always been, too.)

Regardless, Kelce’s career took off in 2014, when he was in his age-25 campaign, making him somewhat of a late starter when it comes to breaking through as a star performer. He caught 67 passes for 862 yards and five touchdowns in the regular season, even though the team dropped to 9-7 and missed the playoffs. The Chiefs were the No. 5 team in the NFL, sabermetrically, but a 3-4 record in games decided by a touchdown or less doomed Kansas City into the offseason earlier than expected. Yet Kelce thrived.

And he would start his current streak of 11 consecutive Pro Bowl selections in the 2015 season when the team rebounded to win 11 games again and advanced to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs. With 72 receptions, 875 yards, and five TDs, Kelce repeated his standout efforts from the prior year and established himself as one of the most reliable players at his position. We can’t underestimate the contributions of a veteran QB like Smith helping Kelce thrive in an offense that needed stability from its TEs.

In four seasons (2014-2017) with Smith primarily behind center, Kelce averaged 77 catches, 975 yards, and six TDs per season while he learned his craft, matured, and progressed into his prime years. At that point, QB Patrick Mahomes entered the scene as the full-time starter at quarterback starting in 2018, and Kelce’s statistical impact really took off: over the next five campaigns (2018-2022) comprising the physical peak of an athlete’s performance arc, the KC TE upped those averages to become a rock star.

Consider these averages: 102 receptions for 1,289 yards and 9 TDs. In that timeframe, the Chiefs won two Super Bowls (2019, 2022) while losing one as well (2020). An interesting tidbit we want to add on this prime stretch for Kelce: he averaged 75 catches a season that resulted in first downs, topping the NFL in that category in 2020 with 79 first-down grabs. Whatever the weapons on the offense, that ability to get open when the opponent knows where the ball is going just can’t be underestimated.

In addition to that statistical brilliance, these five seasons resulted in the best sabermetric outputs for Kelce, too, in his long career: 62 AV. That represents half his career AV in these five seasons alone, and he’s played in 192 regular-season games, which is about 12 seasons’ worth. So, yes, these were his peak seasons, but his “less-than-peak” years were still pretty impressive, and that brings us to these last few seasons for Kelce as he both ages physically and manages the off-the-field distractions that come with fame.

From 2023-2025, his seasonal averages “dropped” to 89 catches for 886 yards and 4 TDs, resembling his early years in the NFL. When we add in his postseason accomplishments—178 receptions for 2,078 yards and 29 scores in 25 contests—where he is the all-time playoff leader in catches, Kelce has done amazing things that we’re not sure other TEs can match, ever. He has been fortunate to play with two great QBs and for a great head coach, too. There’s no doubt the luck factor has been strong here, indeed.

However, sometimes that luck is what makes such greatness possible: right place, right time, stay healthy, etc. Kelce will be entering his age-37 campaign this fall for the 2026 Chiefs, and with the team missing the postseason for the first time since that 2014 season, the motivation for him will be real. But he has nothing to prove, really. He is the active leader in receptions with 1,080 catches, and he’s already won three Super Bowl rings. Kelce also has a life ahead of him that most men would envy, for sure.

Keep all this in mind when you watch Kelce, Mahomes, and Reid in 2026. We admire the enthusiasm Kelce brings to the game, and it’s why he is so popular with fans. There is a bit of joy in every move he makes, although it is easier to be that way when the team is winning a lot. Still, it’s this kind of passion that connects fans to the sports they watch, since so many former threads of connection have been lost or severed over time. Seeing grown men celebrate like little boys, playing a game, can still elicit joy.