We don’t know how often we will add volumes to this miniseries on Sunday Surmising, but we’re starting today with a general round-up analysis of things that made us laugh recently. We have commented recently on the asinine nature of guaranteed contracts, and that is part of today’s column, of course, but it’s also about the head-scratching moves that make you go, “Mmmm.” Of course, every team does weird things, really, when we break it down. Imagine the possibilities!

These three contracts jumped out at us in the last week, so we’re off to have the fun exploring context and circumstance here. Sabermetrics are fun that way, as is the curiosity of what led any player to this specific moment in their career(s).

  • Ranger Suárez: This guy is entering his age-30 season, and he’s never thrown enough innings in a single season to qualify for the ERA title. Let that sink in … his career high came last year in Philadelphia (157 1/3 IP), and in the last five seasons combined, he’s tossed just 139 IP per season on average. Yet the Boston Red Sox just gave him $130M for the next five years, when he will be in his age-34 season upon this deal’s end. His 3.38 career ERA is solid, of course, but he clearly is not a workhorse starting pitcher. Also, he gave up 8.8 hits per 9 IP last year, which isn’t stellar. His 1.220 WHIP was solid, but this is a guy who puts a lot of balls in play, so the Sox defense better be ready.
  • Harrison Bader: A center fielder who has played for six teams already, he just finished his age-31 walk year with the highest OPS (.796) of his career. He is still a solid fielder (1.4 dWAR in 2025), but when you post your best-ever OPS in your early 30s, it’s not a good sign no matter which way you slice it, especially in a walk year when players give in to … ahem … temptation. The San Francisco Giants gave him a two-year, $20.5M deal nonetheless, which makes little sense as Bader hadn’t had a decent season since 2021. He made less than $5M last year, and now he doubles his salary after a career year at age 31. Again, we’ve seen too many situations like this in S.F. before now.
  • Luis Arráez: We don’t mean to pick on the Giants, but sometimes, it’s too easy to do so. They just added this guy, too, for a one-year, $10M deal. He’s a three-time batting champ, but that comes with some caveats. First, he’s played with three different teams in the last four seasons, so clearly something is amiss. Second, S.F. itself only signed him to a one-year deal, even though he’s in his prime and entering his age-29 season. Third, he hit only .292 last year, his worst average as an MLB player, while posting minus-0.7 dWAR in the process, a problem the Giants can’t have. His .719 OPS with the San Diego Padres last year was also a career low, so this is a guy trending downward. Curious.

Well, that’s it for today. Remember, catchers and pitchers report to Spring Training next week; the long, dry spell of winter without baseball is over. We probably will post more of these pieces in the weeks to come before Opening Day.