This is the last MLB Monday entry before the 2026 season begins. We make no predictions this time; however, we will sneak a peek at the payroll situations for the upcoming campaign and do some quick analysis there. Baseball is a sport for the rich, with very few teams breaking through the Top 10 payroll paywall to reach and win the World Series in recent memory. With the high-spending Los Angeles Dodgers looking for a three-peat scenario, we do not expect much to change. This much we know is true.

So, heading into Opening Day in 48 hours or so, this is the Top 12 payroll scenario:

  • Los Angeles (NL): $395.8M payroll
  • New York (NL): $368M
  • New York (AL): $325.4M
  • Philadelphia: $309.5M
  • Toronto: $302.4M
  • San Diego: $262.3M
  • Boston: $253.6M
  • Detroit: $236.6M
  • Atlanta: $233M
  • Houston: $228.1M
  • Chicago (NL): $224.4M
  • San Francisco: $221.6M

The World Series winner is more than likely to come out of this group, although not all payrolls are spent efficiently or wisely. Yes, we’re looking at you, Mets front office—not to mention the Giants brass. Still, there is a clear demarcation line here in spending, as the No. 13 team in payroll, the Texas Rangers, are currently under that $200M threshold. We all know these payroll numbers will fluctuate as the season progresses, too, thus it is possible for many teams, usually the ones in larger TV markets, to make the jump.

Three teams have payrolls under $100M total, including the Cleveland Guardians, who have reached the postseason two years in a row, thanks to brilliant managing, mostly. The two Florida teams also join Cleveland in the Under-$100M Club, so don’t look there for a World Series winner, either. Overall, there are 12 teams with payrolls under $140M, and there is little precedent over the last 30 years to expect any of those teams to break out of the lower-tier pack and surprise us all by randomly winning the Fall Classic.

When was the last time we truly had a surprise MLB champion? Probably in 2003, really. Perhaps even in 2010, although there were probably nefarious forces there. Still, those were large(r)-market franchises, still, residing in big(ger) TV markets. We can’t call 2015 a “surprise” since it was the second-straight AL pennant for the Kansas City Royals. The team’s success was a shocker in 2014 when it lost Game 7 of the Fall Classic, but the same label could not be used for the follow-up act. Again, surprises are rare.

Even when a big-market team comes out of nowhere to win a World Series, we can’t consider it a miracle due to the resources available and the MLB motivation for TV ratings. Of that list above, only Detroit (No. 14) and San Diego (30) reside outside the Top 10 in television markets. By the way, the Rangers reside in the No. 4 market, while Toronto has the entirety of Canada behind its viewing power. Combine the payroll numbers and the TV ratings potential? And that’s often your recipe for a winning team.

Well, almost always—and certainly enough to pretty much not expect anything different, even if it happens once in a blue moon.