We have had this dream for decades of being able to pick all the NFL playoff games, straight up, which is pretty impossible to do. We’ve known sharps who aimed to do it with point spreads, and that’s even more ridiculously improbable due to chance flukes, etc. Math is math, and it’s not always right, specifically in volatile situations like playoff matchups. Yet it’s the best predictor we have, still, for future performance.

Today, on NFL Thursday, we try once again, dear friends.

Giving three points for home-field advantages is always fair, and the NFL re-seeds each round of the conference playoffs, rather than having a slotted bracket like March Madness, etc. Thus, we can imagine how this will all turn out now, and unlike our Stanley Cup fun every spring, we’re going to attempt to do this all from the start. That’s simpler, too, since the NFL has the single-game elimination format—not a series.

On with the show …

Wild-Card Round

  • Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots: L.A. is the second-worst team in the AFC field. New England should win this by at least a touchdown based on the math, thanks to home-field advantage.
  • Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags are the best team in the conference, slightly edging out Houston. Poor Buffalo never seems to be able to get lucky (small TV market). Jacksonville by a TD.
  • Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: The worst team in the AFC gets home field here due to arcane rules (revenue). But even so, the Texans should win this one. They’d be 8.5-point favorites on a neutral field.
  • Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: The Packers’ late fade (four straight losses) means this is a coin flip if they were playing on a neutral field. In Chicago, home field is mitigated, though. Yet the Bears get lucky—again.
  • San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles: Home field for Philly all but wipes out the 49ers’ mathematical edge, and the S.F. defense looks like Swiss cheese too often. The Eagles defense carries it.
  • Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers: This is the biggest mismatch of the wild-card round, as the Rams would be a 16.1-point favorite on a neutral field. Carolina has no business even being here, folks.

Divisional Round

  • Houston at Denver Broncos: This is our first true upset pick here, as the Broncos would be 5.1-point underdogs on a neutral field. But this is at Mile High Stadium, or whatever. Still, we like the Texans.
  • Jacksonville at New England: Home field for the Patriots wipes out most of Jacksonville’s mathematical edge, and if the weather is bad—which it often is in January—we’re thinking Pats.
  • Rams at Seattle Seahawks: These are the best two teams in the NFL, period, and with the home-field advantage, the Seahawks turn a slight edge into a bigger margin. The Seattle defense is legit.
  • Philadelphia at Chicago: The Eagles are the defending champs, and this feels like an old-school matchup everyone might enjoy. The Bears win the math only based on home field, so we like Philly.

Conference Championships

  • Houston at New England: Going on the road again eliminates Houston’s mathematical edge, making this the proverbial toss-up situation. But again, the weather could factor in here a lot, so … the Pats.
  • Philadelphia at Seattle: On paper, this should not be close. The Seahawks would be a 10-point favorite on a neutral field, and we all know how the Seattle crowd rocks it. Expect a blowout, people.

Super Bowl LX

  • New England vs. Seattle: Who had this in their preseason predictions? No one. But the Seahawks are the best mathematical team in the league, and they would be a 7.3-point favorite here against a pretty good New England team. Kudos to both franchises for making it here unexpectedly, but Seattle wins it.

There you have our best guesses. Don’t bet on these things happening as is, however. That is pure folly.