It’s been a long time since we did a pure NFL Thursday piece, but here we are with one to kick off 2026 with style! With most of the postseason berths secured at this point, before the final weekend of the season, we want to examine the sabermetric rankings for the year, as promised on Tuesday. Factoring in offensive/defensive data, as well as margin of victory and strength of schedule, here are the mathematicals.

Let’s start with the AFC, as the data here is quite surprising (and we sort of teased the NFC data already this week). Record wise, the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots are tied with 13-3 records, with the Jacksonville Jaguars at 12-4 overall. But the math tells a different story, entirely: the top sabermetric team right now in the conference is actually … drumroll, please … the 11-5 Houston Texas, much to our shock, too.

In order, the AFC teams spill out in this order, based on the math: Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, New England, Buffalo, Denver, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. We stop there as the Steelers are the last team to have a postseason shot at the moment. The gap between the Texans and the Broncos amounts to about 5.5 points on a neutral field, for perspective. Denver is overrated, and it shows.

The two biggest reasons are margin of victory and schedule strength: the Broncos have won a lot of close games against the third-easiest schedule in the AFC. They may be sitting on glass stilts, and Denver is a prime candidate for an upset in the postseason, assuming it wins the top seed in the conference. Don’t forget where you read that first. Meanwhile, teams like Indianapolis and Kansas City were not that bad.

Yes, in the end, wins be wins, right? Of course. But not all wins are created equally, as we have discussed many a time. The fact the Chiefs are ranked higher than the Chargers says a lot here, too, about L.A.’s chances in the playoffs. The AFC East and South divisions produced much better teams this year than the highly publicized AFC West. We don’t bet on sports, but if we did, we’d be investing in the top four teams.

Now, on to the NFC, which isn’t as crazy yet still has produced some interesting results. This is the ranking order, sabermetrically: Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco, Detroit, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Dallas, and Carolina. Yes, that’s right: the Panthers rate out as the 12th-best team in a 16-team conference, yet they are in line for postseason berth if they can just beat the Buccaneers.

Stunning, huh? Tampa Bay should be a 2.8-point favorite on a neutral field in that matchup, and the game is in Florida. Thus, toss about 3.0 points on top of that. Of course, the Bucs need to win and hope for an Atlanta victory, too, to get into the playoffs, but that is beside the point. Too many close losses have doomed Tampa Bay this season as the team has lost seven of eight games since its bye week (five by 16 points total).

The Lions are another team on the outside looking in, not to mention Minnesota, but those are the waters. We will remind everyone that the Seahawks (13-3) and the Rams (11-5) are rated way higher than San Francisco (12-4), but the 49ers could end up with the top seed in the NFC if they beat Seattle tomorrow night at Levi’s Stadium. This how and why close games either make or break your season, really. Because?

San Francisco is 4-1 in the NFC West, and three of those victories came by a total of eight points—in the first five weeks of the season. The 49ers have had a lot of injuries, but when they won those three division matchups by Week 5, they set themselves up nicely for a possible division championship in the first week of October. Here we are three months later, and San Francisco can reap the benefits of those early-sewn seeds.

Keep the math in mind; as we pointed out with the Bears earlier, it’s not always right, but it does show the probabilities and percentages accurately. Of course, they still have to play the games, always. That’s the fun—and maddening—part of being a sports fan, really. We know who “should” win, yet we tune in just to see how it all unfolds. Sometimes, the math wins out; other times, it’s luck and pluck. What will it be in 2026?!