The Sunday Surmising space returns to the Chicago Bears today, who currently sit atop the NFC (!) with a 9-3 record, while outscoring their opponents by a mere six points. Since we suggested you sell high on them a handful of days ago, Da Bears have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers (without Aaron Rodgers) by three points and the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles by nine points. The miracles go on, evidently.

So, what to make of the Bears at this point? They’re really are a 6-6 team, based on the math, yet wins are wins, even if ugly or lucky. The math isn’t wrong; it just represents the probabilities, and there are always outliers. Teams like Chicago have managed to win the Super Bowl despite tremendous flaws and the mathematical improbabilities. That’s why they play the games, of course; otherwise, we wouldn’t watch.

The Bears have played, still, the weakest schedule in the conference, but they’ve won nine games out of 12 so far. Thus, we can say they have taken advantage of the easiest slate of opponents. We remember the 1999 St. Louis Rams, who also played a very weak schedule on their way to the NFC title (and a Super Bowl victory). But that team absolutely torched its opponents to make the postseason easily. Chicago? Not so.

That Greatest Show on Turf struggled in its three postseason games, winning them but barely so: the Rams had outscored regular-season opponents by 17.8 points per game, but in the playoffs, they only escaped by an average of eight points per game. Imagine how the Bears might fare when they’re only out-doing their opponents right now by a 0.5 ppg margin. Once they hit the postseason, the math suggests they’re cooked.

Time will tell, though. The 2011 New York Giants had no business winning four postseason games by an average of 11.5 points after being outscored during the regular-season while posting just a 9-7 record. But shit happens; maybe the 2025 Chicago Bears are living a blessed life, too. We have no idea of knowing, but in the end, we’re always going to go with the math, some common sense, and an understanding of money.

Is there money in the Bears winning when the math says no? We’re not sure what kind of TV draw Chicago is in NFL circles. Yes, it’s a huge TV market, but the team makes money regardless of whether they win or lose (think about the Chicago Cubs, for example: same deal there). The Bears probably aren’t a popular national draw, however, since the players themselves aren’t really household names (yet) at this point.

Alas, you just never know. For now? Chicago has five more games ahead, to revisit that detail: at Green Bay (8-3-1), Cleveland (3-9), Green Bay again, at San Francisco (9-4), and Detroit (7-5). We can’t see the luck continuing in Wisconsin on December 7, although the Bears probably can beat the Browns, despite Cleveland’s pluck and tough defense. But can Chicago beat the Packers in the Windy City on December 20?

That may be the final litmus test—as well as the matchup against the 49ers on the road. And that finale against the Lions could be significant, too, in terms of the postseason. We suggested before that the Bears could go 9-8 if things broke right for them, and now they’re already 9-3. Do we have a revised prediction? Perhaps 11-6, but clearly Chicago is overcoming some serious mathematical obstacles already. Buy or sell …

We still say sell.