We touch on some interesting NFL data for this Sunday Surmising column, after the morning slate of games has been completed. The Chicago Bears are 7-3 somehow, yet they’ve been outscored on the season by six points, total, through 10 games. We all know how close games—those decided by a score or less, generally speaking—can deflate or inflate a team’s record, and in this case, the Bears are very overrated.

Here is the hard data: the Bears are 5-0 against teams with a combined record of 14-35 that they’ve beaten by a combined 13 points. This tells us Chicago is standing on glass stilts, and as soon as the team faces decent competition, it will fold. In the two Bears’ wins by more than one score, they’ve beaten the 2-8 New Orleans Saints and the 3-5-1 Dallas Cowboys. So, overall, Chicago’s seven wins are against terrible teams.

Those seven “victims” of the Bears have combined record of 19-48-1 (for a .287 winning percentage). What we’re seeing here is a team that has beaten the worst of the worst in the NFL for its wins, while losing to the Detroit Lions by 31 points, the 4-5 Baltimore Ravens by 14 points, and the 4-6 Minnesota Vikings by three points. Chicago has not beaten a good team all year, but it hasn’t played well against middling teams, either.

And it got absolutely crushed by the only team it’s played so far with a winning record: the 6-3 Lions.

So, the data for Chicago is not good; if you’re a fan of Da Bears, we apologize for sharing this data. Wins are wins, and they all count in the standings. However, digging deeper for context and meaning is the responsible thing to do, and that’s why we’re here. The NFC North Division leaders—for the moment—have not beaten a winning team all year, and the only winning team they have faced beat them by 31 points.

This is not a playoff-worthy team. The expected win-loss record for this team is 5-5 at best, with that scoring differential, and the 7-3 record has come against the easiest schedule in the NFC, as well. If the Bears happen to make the postseason, their chances are minimal of winning a game there, let alone making a run to the Super Bowl. And as past precedent has shown, next year will be a very corrective season for the team.

When you win a lot of close games one year, the law of averages basically corrects that in the following year, and your winning percentage regresses to the mean. Keep that in mind for next season, no matter how this season ends for the Bears. And how will it end for them? We can project right now, based on the above data:

  • Week 12: Pittsburgh (6-4)
  • Week 13: @ Philadelphia (7-2)
  • Week 14: @ Green Bay (6-3-1)
  • Week 15: Cleveland (2-7)
  • Week 16: Green Bay (6-3-1)
  • Week 17: @ San Francisco (6-4)
  • Week 18: Detroit (6-3)

So, Chicago has seven games remaining, only one against a team with a losing record (the Browns). There is a good chance, based on the data, that the Bears will go 1-6 to close the season and finish under .500 for the year. Maybe they get lucky and steal a game somewhere in there, but Chicago isn’t looking strong for the long haul in 2025. Their remaining opponents currently have a collective 39-27-2 record (.588 WP overall).

Contrast that to the above, analyze the scoring differential, and take the close-game scores into account.