Welcome to the first official Sunday Surmising of spring, so what else would we discuss other than Major League Baseball? Exactly. And we’re going to predict a World Series victory for the New York Yankees right now, simply because of the Top 10 TV markets in the country, the ones with the longest MLB title dry spells are … drumroll, please … the Philadelphia (2008) and New York (2009) metropolitan areas. It’s that simple.

The Mets (2015), the Phillies (2022), and the Yankees (2024) have all returned to the Series in the last decade, only to lose. So, what is the most likely combination of Fall Classic combinations here? Well, the American League pennant is New York’s for the taking, and the Yankees seem ready to repeat as AL champs. No one else in the league really looks to be a true threat, although you never know what can happen, right?

That’s why we’re picking the Yankees to win it all: they’re due. Sure, the Los Angeles Dodgers look loaded in the National League, but if history hold serve, the top-winning team won’t win the Series. We might cover our bets here and argue that the Mets or the Phillies will be the NL entry in the Fall Classic, but we’re guessing with the TV ratings earned by last season’s L.A./N.Y. matchup, we’re in for a repeat affair. Money!

Plus, Atlanta and Los Angeles are much stronger mathematical bets in the senior circuit, and it would take some playoff upsets for the Mets or the Phillies to make it to the World Series, and even then, they’d be underdogs anyway against the Yankees. Plus, it just feels like it’s time to see the Bronx Bombers win it again, as a 15-year gap between titles is about the same as it was for them in the 1960s and 1970s, as well.

Little of this is scientific, but it’s based on historical trends that have formed this century in the sport. There’s no going back now, either: once the profit machine starts churning into new territory, the greed never stops dominating the scenario until it all implodes on itself. When that day comes, we don’t know, but for now, it’s all about the proven formula in this sport and others: spend a lot of money and forget ethics.

We’re not saying the Yankees need to cheat, either; they have a built-in brand that turns a profit no matter what. Yet it’s time to renew the credentials, too, for the franchise, and the organization is overdue for another MLB title. We liken this to the Boston Celtics in the NBA, who should have won a title in 2022, but they didn’t actually win it until 2024—about 15 years or so since their prior championship. There you go.