We are proud to announce that we will are Founders Club members for the Golden State Valkyries and their inaugural season. We also have reached the end of our first WNBA Tuesday miniseries, and now it’s time to rank every WNBA Rookie of the Year winner we identified in our awards analyses. We warn you: these factual sabermetric rankings are going to surprise most people who don’t pay attention to actual data.

To recap, the league started in 1997, and that leaves 28 ROTY winners to order here. Again, these are our picks for ROTY, not the actual vote winners. We have made a longer list that includes both, although 20 vote winners were confirmed by our historical verification process—that’s a pretty good rate, in truth. Thus, overall, we have 35 players who have either won the contemporary vote or our retroactive hardware.

(Note: The WNBA did not have an official ROTY winner in its first season.)

Since the league has had different-length schedules over the decades, we’re showing Win Shares per 48 Minutes Played as well as the WS total (regardless of games scheduled/played). On with the show, as we break the 35 rookies into five tiers of “excellence”—although that word is not accurate for most of them:

Tier V: “Somebody Had to Win It”

  • Michaela Onyenwere, F, New York Liberty (2021): 0.043 WS/48, 0.6 WS (32 games)
  • Jewell Loyd, G, Seattle Storm (2015): 0.061, 1.1 (34)
  • Allisha Gray, G, Dallas Wings (2017): 0.103, 2.0 (34)
  • Caitlin Clark, G, Indiana Fever (2024): 0.103, 3.0 (40)
  • Armintie Harrington, G, Chicago Sky (2007): 0.104, 1.9 (34)
  • Temeka Johnson, G, Washington Mystics (2005): 0.124, 2.5 (34)
  • Rhyne Howard, G, Atlanta Dream (2022): 0.132, 2.9 (34)

There are a lot of guards in this group, which stands out. The other obvious elephant is Clark, who set an all-time, single-season “record” for turnovers as a rookie while shooting just 34.4 percent from downtown. People really don’t understand how bad those numbers are, even if she did other great things. Facts matter.

Tier IV: The Mediocre

  • Jackie Stiles, G, Portland Fire (2001): 0.133, 2.8 (32)
  • Chamique Holdsclaw, F, Washington Mystics (1999): 0.141, 3.1 (31)
  • Crystal Dangerfield, G, Minnesota Lynx (2020): 0.145, 1.9 (21)
  • Seimone Augustus, G/F, Minnesota Lynx (2006): 0.166, 3.9 (34)
  • Nykesha Sales, F/G, Orlando Miracle (1999): 0.177, 3.8 (32)
  • Tracy Reid, F, Charlotte Sting (1998): 0.179, 3.6 (30)
  • Betty Lennox, G, Minnesota Lynx (2000): 0.182, 3.7 (32)

There are some interesting names here, including Stiles, Holdsclaw, and Sales—all of whom were NCAA stars in their own time. It’s easy to see, however, that with more games played, the WS marks increase. This is why we’re ranking the players by WS/48, since it evens out the counting stats that are volume dependent.

Tier III: The Average

  • Nicole Ohlde, F/C, Minnesota Lynx (2004): 0.182, 3.9 (34)
  • Shakira Austin, C/F, Washington Mystics (2022): 0.192, 3.1 (36)
  • Lauren Jackson, F/C, Seattle Storm (2001): 0.196, 4.1 (29)
  • Cheryl Ford, F, Detroit Shock (2003): 0.199, 4.0 (32)
  • Diana Taurasi, G, Phoenix Mercury (2004): 0.200, 4.7 (34)
  • Kiah Stokes, C, New York Liberty (2015): 0.205 3.7 (34)
  • A’ja Wilson, C, Las Vegas Aces (2018): 0.211, 4.4 (33)

Jackson and Wilson had relatively middling rookie seasons, in comparison to the tiers ahead here. But they are all-time WNBA greats, nonetheless, who got better and better as time went on. Meanwhile, Taurasi—who just retired—is one of our favorites, but she’s been extremely overrated, overall (to be discussed later).

Tier II: The Outstanding

  • Cappie Pondexter, G, Phoenix Mercury (2006): 0.217, 4.8 (32)
  • Napheesa Collier, F, Minnesota Lynx (2019): 0.222, 5.2 (34)
  • Aliyah Boston, F/C, Indiana Fever (2023): 0.230, 6.0 (40)
  • Breanna Stewart, F, Seattle Storm (2016): 0.232, 5.7 (34)
  • Tina Charles, C, Connecticut Sun (2010): 0.236, 5.2 (34)
  • Angel McCoughtry, F/G, Atlanta Dream (2009): 0.242, 3.7 (34)
  • Michelle Brogan, F, Phoenix Mercury (1998): 0.248, 4.0 (30)

Stewart is the player who stands out the most here, of course, although it’s key to note that Boston’s sabermetrics were literally twice as good as her more-famous teammate’s numbers. Charles has had a very nice career, too, while Pondexter’s rookie season was objectively better than Taurasi’s efforts earlier.

Tier I: The Elite

  • Chiney Ogwumike, F/C, Connecticut Sun (2014): 0.255, 4.9 (31)
  • Maya Moore, F, Minnesota Lynx (2011): 0.268, 5.3 (34)
  • Rushia Brown, F, Cleveland Rockers (1997): 0.275, 2.9 (28)
  • Nneka Ogwumike, F, Los Angeles Sparks (2012): 0.310, 5.9 (33)
  • Candance Parker, F/C, Los Angeles Sparks (2008): 0.333, 7.7 (33)
  • Elena Delle Donne, F/G, Chicago Sky (2013): 0.334, 6.5 (30)
  • Tamika Catchings, F, Indiana Fever (2002): 0.378, 9.2 (32)

First, the obvious: Catchings’ rookie season was three times as good as Clark’s rookie season—for the same franchise. It’s kind of unreal how current sports mediots don’t even note this in their “reporting” blather. But players like Moore, Parker, and Delle Donne have had amazing WNBA careers from the start.

Analytical Conclusion(s)

It’s clear to see a distinct sabermetric hierarchy here and wonder why the mediots praise Clark so much. When one sees the value impact of all the Rookies of the Year since the start of the league, it’s clear that there have been many better rookie seasons in the history of the WNBA. Most fans and even mediots lack historical context and sabermetric awareness, however, which is why we carved out this corner of the webs.