This weekend on Sunday Surmising, we’re looking at NHL goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood, who was rescued from the San Jose Sharks this season, by the Colorado Avalanche. This is a case study, too, in why sabermetric data exists, since context always matters. Blackwood has gone from looking like a worthless backstop to performing like an All Star—simply based on the quality of the team around him changing.

To wit, in 63 games with the San Jose Sharks from 2023-2024, Blackwood posted a 16-34-7 record with a 3.31 goal-against average and a .902 save percentage. The win-loss numbers look horrible, and the GAA is terrible, as well. A keen eye might observe that even on a bad team, the .902 S% is actually somewhat impressive, considering just how many shots on goal the Sharks were giving up during his time there.

Blackwood was not the primary issue in San Jose, nor even the tertiary problem. Since his trade to the Colorado Avalanche in December 2024, however, we have seen a whole new goalie, it seems on the surface: in 25 games, his record is 16-7-2 with a 2.21 GAA and a .921 S%. How is that even the same guy? Some clueless dolts like to say, “It’s the coaching!”—and maybe sometimes that can be the case … but not often.

Everyone knows the Sharks suck, and everyone should know the Avs just won the Cup a few seasons ago. The PS/G marks reveal something as well: Blackwood posted 0.179 PS/G with the Sharks, and he has put up 0.212 PS/G in Colorado. That doesn’t seem like that much difference, and in truth, it’s not. The point of sabermetric measurements is to incorporate context, so even goalies on bad teams can be fairly evaluated.

For his career, for example, Blackwood has posted 0.171 PS/G, which includes 152 games with the New Jersey Devils when he was younger (2198-2023). He was “better” than that career mark with the Sharks, even though his traditional stats with the Devils would suggest otherwise (65-57-18, 2.97, .906). Of course, Blackwood has matured from a raw rookie who finished sixth in the 2020 Calder voting to a veteran now.

So, we see a goalie who has gotten better over time, in expectation of someone currently in their age-28 season. This is Blackwood’s prime, really, and it was being wasted on a Sharks team that couldn’t use his talents right now to succeed. Kudos to the Avalanche front office for spying the diamond in the rough and polishing it off to improve their own team. Sometimes it’s just the way the career cookie crumbles, right?

[Editor’s Note: We won’t discuss what the San Jose organization got in return for Blackwood right now.]