The 2025 Major League Baseball season is creeping up on us, and even though some key players remain unsigned, there are data-rich projections out there for the eventual standings. These may change between now and Opening Day in Japan, but we’re just going with it now, in a division-by-division breakdown. We think the high-win totals are cautious, but it’s based on math, so it is what it is. Anomalies always occur!

Starting with the NL West, the Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for 96 wins, the most in MLB. We think this is a low projection, considering how loaded the roster is, but no model is going to predict 110 victories. The Arizona Diamondbacks are projected for 86 wins and a wild-card spot, while the San Diego Padres’ 83 projected victories leave them as the only NL team with a winning record to miss the postseason. Ouch!

Across the nation in the NL East, the Atlanta Braves are the only other team projected to win more than 90 games (93, to be exact). And with 87 projected victories each, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies should be joining the Braves in the playoffs. However, the Washington Nationals (73) and the Miami Marlins (71) are looking at a long summer ahead. Again, these seem like conservative projections; we will see.

The NL Central is the worst division in the senior circuit: the Chicago Cubs are projected to win the division with the only winning record in the bunch (84-78). The Milwaukee Brewers rate out as a .500 team, while the St. Louis Cardinals (79 wins), the Cincinnati Reds (78), and the Pittsburgh Pirates (78) are bunched in there together. We expect to see the most volatility in this division, as one long win streak will change all.

Over in the junior circuit, the New York Yankees have the highest projected win total (87). Again, that seems very low, but in the AL East, the teams also are bunched together closely: in fact, every team in this division could finish above .500 on the year, as no team is projected for a losing mark. Boston (85), Baltimore (83), Tampa Bay (82), and Toronto (82) all could push the Yankees and make this a very combustible division.

Meanwhile, the top three teams in the AL West are expected to finish within a game of each other: Texas (85), Houston (84), and Seattle (84) could all make the postseason, albeit in any order. We wonder what the Rangers are expected to get out of oft-injured ace Jacob deGrom, for example. The bottom of this division does not fall far, though, with the vagabond Athletics and the Los Angeles Angels both marked for 76 wins.

In the AL Central, we have another bunched-up situation with Minnesota (83 wins), Detroit (82), and Kansas City (81) running neck and neck to the finish. The Cleveland Guardians should fall off a lot from their 2024 performance, coming in with just 77 victories. Again, this is just math. The Chicago White Sox are projected again to finish with the worst record in MLB, accruing just 63 wins—which seems high to us.

So, there you have some sound projections, and how it unfolds all depends on many factors, of course. Baseball is still our favorite sport, however, despite its many flaws, which is a hurtful shame. Still, we will watch enough to get a sense of how the season goes and report in on many topics along the way. That’s why we do what we do here: we cannot help ourselves. Hope springs eternal, of course, every Opening Day.