You know the drill: teams don’t win the World Series anymore unless they spend a lot of money and/or cheat via PEDs or sign stealing, etc. It’s a sad state of affairs for “America’s pastime”—but it’s also sadly appropriate for the economic realities of the good ol’ United States of America. Capitalistic corruption and greed reigns supreme in the twenty-first century, and baseball often has led the way in this nation …

For better or for worse.

So, as the 2024 MLB regular season kicks off later this week, let’s take a peek at the likely candidates for the World Series, based on past precedent—keeping in mind that teams can change their payroll status throughout the season by either taking on more salary … or shedding it. Thus, this is just the preliminary analysis for the upcoming year: we will check in again in late July to see where things are heading then.

But for now, here we go with the teams most likely to end up in the World Series and winning it (first tier):

  • New York Mets: $301M
  • New York Yankees: $290M
  • Houston Astros: $237M
  • Philadelphia Phillies: $236M
  • Atlanta Braves: $224M
  • Texas Rangers: $220M
  • Toronto Blue Jays: $220M
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: $218M
  • Chicago Cubs: $215M
  • San Francisco Giants: $188M

Some caveats here: the Mets won 75 games last year and have just 1 postseason appearance since 2016. Anything is possible when you spend a lot of money (among other things, as the Rangers showed last year). But we feel the N.Y. fan bases—both of them—will show up no matter what, so the urgency to let them win it all is “less” than it is for other more-bandwagon fan bases, like the ones in Texas or Northern California.

We’re not sure what to think about the Blue Jays, but we know the Cubs and Dodgers fans will show up either way. This brief, topical analysis leaves us with a short list of the Astros, the Phillies, the Braves, the Rangers, and the Giants … each with some context needed. Houston just won the Series in 2022, and Atlanta just won in 2021. The urgency is lesser there, so let’s table them for now. What about the others?

The Phillies haven’t won the Fall Classic since 2008, even though they lost it in 2009 and 2022. In between the team went 10 seasons without a postseason berth (2012-2021). That fan base is due, and the money is being spent; keep an eye on the Phillies. The Rangers have an overrated, cheating manager who hasn’t made the postseason in consecutive years since the mid-2000s (“But he’s so amazing in October!”), so hard pass.

The Giants are in dire straits with the fans again with just 1 postseason berth since 2016, and they haven’t won an MLB championship since 2014. The team added late free-agent signings to boost its payroll in the last few weeks, and even though the overall projections aren’t great, we’ve seen this team defy logic and odds before to win. Plus, the S.F. organization does have a very good manager now in Bob Melvin. Check.

So, we’d say keep an eye on Philadelphia and San Francisco this season, as they fit the profile best for a team spending a lot of money that needs to win now/soon in order to be bottom-line profitable. Whether or not either team resorts to immoral or unethical tactics remains to be seen. Moving on … the next tier of high(er)-payroll teams—not in the Top 10 but above the MLB average—include the following organizations:

  • St. Louis Cardinals: $164M
  • Boston Red Sox: $160M
  • Los Angeles Angels: $158M
  • San Diego Padres: $153M

The Cardinals generally have been a model franchise this century: 16 playoff berths in 25 seasons with 2 World Series and 4 NL pennants. They lost twice in the Fall Classic to cheating Boston teams (2004, 2013) as well. But St. Louis missed the postseason last year with just 71 victories, so they may be poised for a bounce-back season. Yet again, this is not an organization that fits any sort of MLB-influenced success pattern.

Which brings us to the Fenway Frauds: Boston has just 1 postseason appearance since its last World Series title (2018) brought about by cheating. Attendance has been down a little—but not a lot. The Red Sox aren’t spending hog wild, either, so maybe the front office and the owners are content for now. As for the Angels, they haven’t won a Fall Classic since 2002, but the fans don’t seem to be restless: it’s Southern California.

Same for the Padres, who spent a lot of money in the last few years to no avail (like the Mets, really) and now are in the process of shedding payroll, etc. We don’t see San Diego as a “threat” either to MLB sanity. That leaves us with 2 prime candidates for a “miracle” championship season right now: the Phillies and the Giants. We will see how this pans out, and we make no guarantees. But the signs are there right now …