We have spent a lot of time on MNC Wednesdays looking at mythical national champions over the decades, but soon, we may be able to remove the word “mythical” from this moniker. Shocking, right? Next year, the College Football Playoff is supposed to expand to 12 teams, and with one of the Power 5 conferences disintegrating this year, that only makes it even more possible to ensure a mostly legitimate tournament.

But first, what about 2023? Can we project what a 12-team tourney would like this season, even though we’re going to get stuck with the same 4-team charade again, for the last time? Yes! Of course, we can, even though we’re going to do it our way: no cheaters, of course. That’s the way we conducted our decades-long MNC analysis, and we will stick to those requirements this time, too, so you know what that means. Sorry!

We will have 10 FBS Division conference champions, plus two wild-card slots for independents and also rans. Here is how we would seed the tournament for 2023, using the SRS rankings right now—which, of course, can change in the next few weeks. And ultimately, the conferences with title games will determine their respective champions independent of sabermetrics. That’s why they play the games, after all, right?

  • Ohio State (B1G): 10-0 (22.12 SRS)
  • Florida State (ACC): 10-0 (20.87)
  • Texas (Big XII): 9-1 (19.89)
  • Penn State (WC): 8-2 (19.45)
  • Alabama (SEC): 9-1 (19.13)
  • Oregon (Pac-12): 9-1 (18.59)
  • Washington (WC): 10-0 (18.17)
  • Liberty (C-USA): 10-0 (11.13)
  • Troy (Sun Belt): 8-2 (11.04)
  • SMU (AAC): 8-2 (7.95)
  • UNLV (MWC): 8-2 (5.64)
  • Toledo (MAC): 10-1 (4.79)

We realize this would leave out some very good teams, and it’s an argument for expanding to a normal 16-team tournament in the near future—like most other divisions of NCAA football, of course. Michigan would not be eligible, either way, due to its ongoing cheating scandal with unresolved penalties. But the CFP cannot compromise itself by allowing the Wolverines to participate and risking the eventual asterisk.

Another team, perhaps unfairly left out of a 12-team field above? Georgia, the two-time defending CFP champions, as the Bulldogs (10-0, 18.15) fall just short of Washington’s SRS ranking. Yes, many will argue that Georgia would deserve a spot over Toledo, but that’s the call for a 16-team tourney right there. Until then, it remains a reality that to be equitable and fair, all conference champions get an autobid: no choice.

With a 12-team invite list, the top 4 teams would get a first-round bye as well, giving some reward to the best teams. While some may suggest the first-round games be played in lower-tier bowl games, we disagree: the higher seeds should host in the first round only, leaving those bowl invites for the others to have something to look forward to participating in for alum/fan purposes. So, this is the first round:

  • Toledo @ Alabama
  • UNLV @ Oregon
  • SMU @ Washington
  • Troy @ Liberty

For planning and travel purposes, like the NCAA Tournament in basketball, the bracket would be maintained despite upsets, so the top 4 schools would play the winners of these games as follows, in a rotating bowl-site process with the big-name bowls for the final 7 games of the tournament: Rose, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Peach, and Sun (which dates back to 1936). It doesn’t matter which gets what for now:

  • Alabama/Toledo winner vs. Penn State
  • Oregon/UNLV winner vs. Texas
  • SMU/Washington winner vs. Florida State
  • Liberty/Troy winner vs. Ohio State

See how easy and logical this can be? We look forward toward the day it becomes a reality—even if it’s 2024. We will be thrilled for some semblance of legitimacy to be brought forth to college football … finally.