The last time we checked in on the polls-versus-math situation, we identified Washington State as the most overrated teams by the polls. And lo, the Cougars got skinned at home, 44-6, on Saturday by an average Arizona Wildcats team. Math doesn’t lie, even if it is wrong sometimes. And quite often when the math is wrong, it is due to some corruption and greed. This is just a reality of the sports world in the 21st century.

So, it’s now mid-October, and we will check in again with our list of the most overrated teams this week:

  • Tulane: 19.5 spots higher in the polls than in the math
  • Air Force: 19 spots higher
  • Missouri: 12 spots higher

As the season gets deeper, theoretically there should be fewer teams on the overrated list and fewer teams on the underrated list. The data gets deeper, and the mediots get wiser (ha). So, why the heck is Tulane ranked in both polls? No idea. The thing is Tulane won’t play any really good teams from here on out with its AAC schedule. The Green Wave could go 12-1 and still be a relatively average team, with no CFP invite, obvi.

As for the Falcons, they too could go undefeated the rest of the way to finish 13-0, and they’d have a slightly better math profile than Tulane, for sure, based on SOS alone. But Air Force still would be hard pressed to get an invite to the CFP. And we’ve seen the Tigers on the list before, and despite a loss, they’re back. Go figure; you’d think the mediots learned the first time, but Missouri is going to lose at least thrice more.

Now, which teams are the most underrated, still? Here you go:

  • Texas A&M (4-3): 22.5 spots higher in the math than in the polls
  • Kansas State (4-2): 20.5 spots higher
  • TCU (4-3): 17 spots higher
  • Wisconsin (4-2): 14.5 spots higher

The Aggies have an inflated math number due to inflated SOS ratings for the SEC, which we have explained before. With three losses and at least two more on the horizon to ranked teams, TAMU isn’t going to be a factor in anything this season. As for the Wildcats, they could go 5-1 the rest of the way and end up in the Big XII Championship Game. No team should underestimate Kansas State from here on out.

TCU took some heat for losing to Colorado in its first game, but clearly, the Horned Frogs have proven to be a much better team than the Buffaloes. But like the Aggies, there are at least two more losses ahead for TCU, so keep that in mind. The Badgers somehow lost to Iowa, which should have lost to Michigan State, and now Wisconsin still has a chance to finish 9-3 for the year. That won’t rate the B1G title game, but it’s still good.

Just remember when you see these poll rankings in the next few weeks: the mediots do get a little wiser as the season progresses, but the math is still the thing to trust the more the season advances. With more data to crunch, the probabilities become firmer and firmer.