We chimed in on the Colorado Buffaloes earlier this season while the mediots were slobbering all over them. We are not always right here, but we are never in doubt of the math: it’s official now that the Buffs have crashed hard. Last night, Colorado blew a 29-0 third-quarter lead at home against the Stanford Cardinal, losing in double overtime to fall to 4-3 on the year with five very tough games left on the schedule.

Basically, the Buffaloes need 6 wins to reach a bowl game, and that would be impressive after a 1-win season in 2022. But look at what teams Colorado has left on its schedule:

  • @ UCLA: No. 19 SRS currently
  • Oregon State: No. 21
  • Arizona: No. 57
  • @ Washington State: No. 14
  • @ Utah: No. 30

Excepting the Wildcats, all those teams are ranked currently, too, in the Associated Press poll, although we know how little that means—hence, the math rankings instead. Facing the Bruins, the Cougars, and the Utes all on the road should mean 3 losses for the Buffs. Yes, they’re capable of upsets, but a lot of that will have to do with how well Head Coach Deion Sanders mentally prepares his roster in the next month or so.

The Beavers probably are too good and too well coached to lose on the road in Boulder, and the Wildcats are capable of anything themselves, having just pushed USC into overtime last weekend before losing. Colorado’s SRS sits at No. 61 right now, and that should fluctuate a bit over the course of this five-game span. But with four probable losses still left on this schedule, will the Buffs make it to the requisite six wins?

We don’t bet on college sports (or pro sports, for that matter), since the mood swings of teenage boys aren’t predictable in our minds. However, we feel confident in the math that Colorado will lose to UCLA, Oregon State, Washington State, and Utah—which should improve its SRS before that final matchup on November 25 in Salt Lake City. That means 7 losses are pretty much a guarantee for the Buffaloes: no bowl game there.

Mark it down.

Editor’s Note: This is the 1,500th column on this site since we started doing it years ago. The evolution of the content really accelerated with the Covid lockdown and the advancement of our sports historian career. It’s been more than 6.5 years since we began this journey, and we hope it continues for awhile longer. Thanks for visiting! Come back any time …