The Associated Press should know better by now: the preseason Top 25 in college football is a joke. Not only does it prejudice the College Football Playoff, but it usually falls back on Power 5 conference teams that honestly have no business being ranked. Inevitably, there are multiple teams that start out ranked every year—and then end up with losing records and no bowl invitations by the end of the season, usually.

So, when you look at this year’s hype list—posted here, for posterity’s sake—just remember these flops:

  • 2022: No. 7 Texas A&M finished 5-7; No. 14 Michigan State (5-7); No. 17 Miami-FL (5-7).
  • 2021: No. 9 North Carolina (6-7); No. 11 Florida (6-7); No. 13 LSU (6-7); No. 14 USC (4-8).
  • 2019: No. 22 Syracuse (5-7); No. 23 Stanford (4-8); No. 25 Northwestern (3-9).
  • 2018: No. 15 USC (5-7); No. 17 Virginia Tech (6-7); No. 19 Florida State (5-7).
  • 2017: No. 16 Florida (4-7); No. 24 Tennessee (4-8).
  • 2016: No. 9 Notre Dame (4-8); No. 11 Michigan State (3-9); No. 12 Mississippi (5-7).
  • 2015: No. 16 Arizona State (6-7); No. 17 Georgia Tech (3-9); No. 23 Missouri (5-7).
  • 2014: No. 23 North Carolina ( 6-7).

We skipped 2020 due to Covid’s messing with the nation, but you can see that every year, there usually are multiple teams that are horribly overrated. Yes, sh*t happens. We didn’t include No. 17 Indiana (2-10) from 2021, because the Hoosiers lost their star quarterback to an injury—and the team went into the sh*tter afterward. Sometimes, that happens. Usually, though, the mediots look at the Top 25 from the prior year.

Some of the teams above went from having lucky seasons of sorts to having unlucky seasons, too: losing or winning the close ones often makes the difference between a 10-victory party and a 5-win disaster. Now, in looking at this season’s preseason Top 25, there are bound to be at least two or three teams that fall flat in 2023. The challenge is always picked them out in advance, but we have a loose formula … guesswork!

We are “guessing” No. 8 Florida State will fail to meet lofty expectations, based on a six-game win streak against unranked teams to finish 2022. This gives the false sense of excellence for the Seminoles, who haven’t been relevant, really, since the early days of the CFP. We also think No. 11 Texas will suck, because the Longhorns will put pressure on themselves for a grand exit from the Big XII on the way to the SEC.

No. 12 Tennessee is an obvious candidate for regression, too, even though we think the world of Vols Head Coach Josh Heupel. But with just a couple of Top 25 finishes in the last 15 years, this is not a program that has shown any ability to sustain success recently. Tennessee also will feel the pressure it is putting on itself, as well as the external expectations now as well. Besides, SEC teams are always overrated, year in/year out.

No. 17 TCU looks like a bad bet, too, for some notable reasons—most directly the fact the Horned Frogs came out of nowhere last year to reach the CFP Championship Game. That kind of hot streak luck isn’t likely to duplicate itself, especially without a veteran quarterback. In addition, TCU hadn’t won more than 7 games in a season for a long time before last year’s 12-0 start, with 8 wins coming by 10 points or less.

The last few teams in the preseason poll are always filler from Power 5 conferences, too: No. 21 UNC, No. 22 Ole Miss, and No. 23 Texas A&M all should struggle to reach bowl games, too, if history is any indication. It’s not their fault; it’s just the way the cookies crumble during the crazy. Keep your eyes on those 7 teams as the most likely candidates to make the above list for the start of next year.