We started this ongoing analysis in commentary to the College Football Playoff committee’s first rankings for the current season, so we’ve kept it going through the end of the regular season to expose any corruption we see and any lack of transparency that exists, as well. It’s our job as historians and journalists to do so. We own it, proudly.
Without further noise, here we go, with seeding, in order (with record, type of bid, and SOS comparisons), for a legitimate championship tournament:
- Michigan (12-1): B1G auto bid. SOS Rank: 9.
- Ohio State (10-2): Wild-card bid. SOS Rank: 7.
- Alabama (12-1): SEC auto. SOS Rank: 21.
- Michigan State (10-2): Wild-card bid. SOS Rank: 13.
- Baylor (11-2): Big XII auto. SOS Rank: 53.
- Cincinnati (13-0): Group of 5 auto. SOS Rank: 75.
- Utah (10-3): Pac-12 auto. SOS Rank: 52.
- Pittsburgh (11-2): ACC auto. SOS Rank: 68.
Here are the teams on the cusp for our 8-team field:
- Notre Dame (11-1): No bid. SOS Rank: 22.
- Georgia (12-1): No bid. SOS Rank: 27.
- Mississippi (10-2): No bid. SOS Rank: 25.
- Oklahoma State (11-2): No bid. SOS Rank: 47.
Order rationale: Yes, this surprised us, too, but it is what it is. The B1G was the top-rated conference this season, with the SEC coming in second. The Buckeyes’ SOS is strong enough to surpass the Crimson Tide, despite the extra loss. Meanwhile, the Spartans make it in, too, with that strong SOS, which knocked the Bulldogs out of the fray, due to auto-bid mandates. Ouch!
The Bears outdo the Bearcats, based on SOS, despite the two losses, although the Utes could not do the same with that third loss. Yet Utah had enough SOS to get past the Panthers to get the No. 7 slot. This is a strong Top 8, and it would provide a shit ton of fun for the nation to watch.
Excluded: Remember, the Fighting Irish cannot be above the Bearcats, due to the head-to-head loss, so they are the real losers here, as their straight-up value is right between the Tide and the Spartans. Those are the breaks. The Bulldogs really blew it, after being so dominant all season, by losing the SEC title game. Obviously, the Cowboys also played themselves out of the Top 8 with the Big XII title game loss.
See how easy this can be when things are transparent? Keep this in mind when the time comes. The top real four teams right now should be Michigan, Alabama, Baylor, and Cincinnati. But it is what it is: The CFP knows the SEC money is theoretically lucrative, and the pressure to let an undefeated Group of 5 team into the playoff is tremendous, even though it is actually deserved in the end.
So, that’s that. The CFP ignored the B1G’s dominance and instead put a second SEC team into the playoff, when Georgia has no right to be there, in truth, based on SOS/sabermetrics. If a non-champion team had to be picked, Ohio State was it, with an SOS rating 20 spots better than the Bulldogs. Never let anyone try to tell you the CFP is legitimate, because it is not—never has been and never will be.