As we move into February, we are little more than a month away from the conference tournaments, and about six weeks away from NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday. We had 36 teams under consideration this week for our Top 16 seeds, and there are a lot of head-to-head games left between the teams jockeying for position at the top of the list.
Remember, this is about more than just wins and losses, for not all records are created equally. Using advanced metrics, we’ve calculated this Top 16 very carefully and as objectively as possible. We take into account actual performance, offensive and defensive efficiency, road record, schedule strength, and overall team production.
Check in every Tuesday this regular season to see how we would rank and seed the top 16 teams in the country, regardless of conference, for March Madness. Here we go, in order:
- Kansas (19-3)
- Duke (18-3)
- Gonzaga (23-1)
- Baylor (20-1)
- San Diego State (23-0)
- Louisville (19-3)
- Michigan State (16-6)
- Dayton (20-2)
- West Virginia (17-4)
- Maryland (17-4)
- Arizona (15-6)
- Florida State (19-3)
- Seton Hall (16-5)
- Iowa (16-6)
- Villanova (17-4)
- Ohio State (14-7)
On the cusp: Butler, Penn State, Oregon, Colorado, Creighton, Auburn, LSU
The B1G Conference is very strong, which is why our model still projects four teams from that league into the Top 16. Inherently, most B1G teams are going to have a lot of “good losses” to powerful teams, and there’s only so much you can ding a school for its tough conference schedule.
Here is how we would seed these 16 teams regionally, based on the upcoming regional sites for the 2020 tournament, with the top seeds getting geographic advantage(s):
- Indianapolis: No. 1 Kansas, No. 8 Dayton, No. 9 West Virginia, No. 16 Ohio State
- New York: No. 2 Duke, No. 7 Michigan State, No. 10 Maryland, No. 15 Villanova
- Los Angeles: No. 3 Gonzaga, No. 6 Louisville, No. 11 Arizona, No. 14 Iowa
- Houston: No. 4 Baylor, No. 5 San Diego State, No. 12 Florida State, No. 13 Seton Hall
Our overall tournament favorites remain Kansas and Duke, with San Diego State creeping into the top echelon, surprisingly. Baylor, Louisville, and Michigan State are in the second tier. These six teams have the best balance required in efficiency on both offense and defense to emerge from the Field of 68 and win it all.
Stay tuned every Tuesday of the season for updated projections!