Our first NFL Thursday miniseries returns today now that the 2025 NFL season is complete, and this will be the second-to-last time we brag that we nailed the Super Bowl matchup and winner a month in advance. Now it’s time to take on the annual analysis for the NFL MVP, and there’s nothing to brag about here, as this is a retrospective piece. Since 2013, we have agreed with just 1.5 MVP winners (Aaron Rodgers in 2020, Josh Allen in 2024). That doesn’t bode well for today.

2025 MVP: Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams (original); Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco (revised)

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford won the MVP vote at age 37 after leading the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns, while finishing second in QB rating (109.2). Overall, though, nine QBs finished with 100-plus QB ratings, so there’s that to consider when narrowing down the best of the best. Of those nine passers, only five of them led their team to the postseason—and of those five? Only four of them started at least 15 games in the 17-game schedule.

Those four QBs are New England Patriots youngster Drake Maye (113.5 QB rating), Stafford, Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen (102.2), and Green Bay Packers phenom Jordan Love (101.2). We see a significant gap between Stafford and Allen, so we will reduce the QB category conversation to the top two guys: Maye and Stafford. The former led the league in completion percentage (72.0), yards per attempt (9.2), QB rating, and QBR—all the formulaic categories of importance, really. And …

Stafford led the league in the aforementioned volume categories (yards, TDs). You know where this is going, as we prefer effective and efficient qualitative success than sheer quantitative success. Plus, we have to look at the supporting casts here: Stafford had a wide receiver and a running back in the Top 10 for total scrimmage yards, which really helps, while Maye’s best teammate was a rookie running back who finished 30th overall in scrimmage yards. Who had more help?

The Rams QB, by quite a lot, as Stafford also had the support of a second WR who topped the NFL in TD catches, even though that guy only played in 14 games and finished 68th in scrimmage yards. It’s not even close: Maye did more with less, and he’s our top QB candidate in this analysis. Of course, we have many other players to consider, although we do not see a defensive candidate this year, as the “best” defensive player starred for a five-win team. So, who else to ponder?

Well, in truth, it’s a short list: only one skill-position player topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage while playing for a postseason participant. A lot of players had great seasons for non-contending teams, and we respect that, but value comes with victories, and therefore San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (2,126 total yards and 17 TDs) is our only other consideration here. He fell 76 receiving yards short of pulling off the 1,000-yard double for a 12-win team.

So, how do our finalists stack up against each other when we factor in the rest of their respective teams’ qualities?

  • Maye: 900-yard RB and a 1,000-yard WR with the No. 3 scoring defense in the AFC
  • CMC: Top 8 QB (100.5 rating) and a 600-yard teammate (WR) with the No. 6 scoring defense in the NFC

We have to point out here, too, that the 49ers top quarterback, Brock Purdy, played in just nine games, and the other eight games were started by the backup to the tune of a 97.5 QB rating. In essence, that backup mostly succeeded because McCaffrey was the team’s leading rusher and its leading receiver as well. The 49ers had so many injuries on both sides of the ball that the franchise was investigating the most random theories on why so many players were hurt. Yet, they won.

A lot.

The 49ers went into Week 17 with a chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC, despite all these issues, and it was because of McCaffrey. We’re not taking anything away from Maye, as he had a great season, but he had more support around him. In addition? New England played the easiest schedule in the AFC, while the 49ers played the third-toughest schedule in the NFC. The evidence just keeps piling up that McCaffrey should have won the MVP vote, and we’re stunned he did not.

A long time ago, we determined CMC should have won the 2015 Heisman Trophy, and maybe this sort of rights this wrong. We don’t know why this guy has not been appreciated enough in his time, and maybe it’s because he’s not flashy enough, but considering Stafford posted just a 3-3 record in the final six weeks of the regular season, while throwing a whopping six interceptions in those games to cost his team a shot at the top seed in the playoffs? Yeah, we don’t get it.

Toss in a seventh turnover in those six games via fumble, and we think the voters just decided in mid-November to give Stafford the nod as a lifetime achievement award, which in itself is laughable. But that’s another conversational analysis for another day: McCaffrey was the true MVP for the 2025 NFL regular season, due to his consistent and impressive production while being surrounded by a revolving cast of S.F. characters due to so many injuries on both sides of the ball.