Welcome back to Thursday Thorns, where we always deliver the facts. Today, there are a lot of sports issues on our minds, but we don’t know really which one to write about in this space, right now. But as we began our first regular Thursday columns with NFL stuff, we will head there today as the new season is right around the corner: the September 4 game features the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Yet it’s time to assess the chances of the four teams that have never played in a Super Bowl: Cleveland, Detroit, Houston, and Jacksonville. We always root for these teams to break through the glass ceiling. While the Lions have posted a 36-15 regular-season record over the last three years, the other three franchises haven’t been as successful. The Browns (21-30), Texans (23-28-1), and Jaguars (22-29) are struggling.

However, Houston has made the postseason two seasons in a row, while Cleveland and Jacksonville have each made the postseason with the last three years. Detroit’s odds are the best this year to reach the Super Bowl, and maybe the Texans are a dark-horse candidate—but the Browns and the Jags have some work to do after rough 2024 seasons. Here are the thoughts we have on the upcoming season for each franchise:

  • Cleveland (200-1): The odds are long. The roster is in flux, again. It would be a huge miracle for the Browns to turn it around so quickly, although class mobility is common in the NFL. First to last happens more than we might think, and Cleveland did win 11 games in 2023. Anything is possible.
  • Detroit (10-1): The Lions are knocking on the door, and they have come so close recently. And the NFC is a bit easier than the AFC right now, in terms of teams in the upper crust. The disappointment of the last two postseasons will either drive this team to success or break its mental toughness into pieces.
  • Houston (25-1): The toughest reality for the Texans is that the AFC is top heavy with the likes of Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City sitting high on the conference hierarchy. Look for Houston to win the AFC South again, but the team will have to pull off some postseason upset magic to reach SB LX.
  • Jacksonville (75-1): The Jags are in the middle of the pack, despite the 4-13 record last year. In 2022-2023, the team posted consecutive 9-8 seasons before regressing last year. Again, however, the conference is tough right now, and cracking the stranglehold the Chiefs have on the situation? Rough.

We do not expect the Philadelphia Eagles to repeat as NFC champs. The Green Bay Packers may be the team to watch this year as the Lions look to make it three straight NFC North titles. No other team in the conference looks good enough to really press Detroit, though, so keep an eye on these three teams. We do like the Lions’ chances this year, despite coaching and personnel losses. We’d take those 10-1 odds above.

As for Houston, the franchise has never made it to three straight postseasons, after having qualified for the playoffs in 2011-2012, 2015-2016, 2018-2019, and now 2023-2024. Interestingly enough, the Texans have only made it to January as a division winner—never as a wild card. But the AFC South is so weak, we do see Houston winning the group again, and the true tests will come in the postseason as we noted above. Tough.

We’re going to write off the Browns and the Jags, as they won a combined seven games last season. There’s just too much to overcome for each team right away, especially with Cleveland needing to fight through Baltimore and Pittsburgh in its own division (the Steelers haven’t had a losing season since 2003) and Jacksonville looking up at the Texans in its division. Too much would have to go right in each scenario.

So, it’s really up to Detroit and Houston this year to give us our ideal Super Bowl matchup. Place your bets.