We went to the Golden State Valkyries game tonight in San Francisco, but our subject for today’s Sunday Surmising is the the MLB team that broke a seven-game losing streak today in the City by the Bay: the San Francisco Giants. And geez, the team has a lot of issues as it finds itself six games out of a playoff spot with just 38 games left to play in the 2025 regular season. The Giants spent a lot of money this year to stink hard.

Coming into today, San Francisco had just a 1.7% chance to make postseason; even though the team won today, the odds won’t be too much different tomorrow as the team(s) above them mostly won, too. The issue is that Giants spent a lot of money this year under new President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey, and they got off to a 19-12 start through April before failing to post a winning record in any month since then.

San Francisco has collapsed since the All-Star break, posting just an 8-19 record since the Midsummer Classic. The Giants actually were sellers at the trade deadline, as the front office realized it would be a long shot to make the postseason this October. But there are deeper issues here for this franchise which has just one playoff appearance since 2016 after pulling three rabbits out of their collective caps from 2010 to 2014.

The payroll situation is rough going forward, with a quartet of really bad contracts that extend to 2029 and beyond. Not only are these contracts really expensive, but the players are either aging soon, underperforming expectations, or both. It will be difficult to unload these contracts, too, on other teams, so the Giants may be stuck with these four players for the next four seasons and with three them even further:

  • Rafael Devers: Posey traded for him in June, and since joining San Francisco, he has managed just a .230 batting average and a .746 OPS through 51 games. That is way down from what he had been producing with the Boston Red Sox. This is his age-28 season, however, so there is realistic hope he can regain his form with the Giants next year, but he is owed a whopping $254.5M through 2033.
  • Matt Chapman: Now in his age-32 season, the defense is starting to slip a bit, even though he is still a very good third baseman. But considering his salary (owed $125.8M through 2030), the .229 BA and .761 OPS are not very stellar. He will be entering his post-peak seasons next year, with five more campaigns still left on the contract he signed with the Giants before the 2024 season. That hurts.
  • Jung Hoo Lee: This was a mistake from the start, as S.F. was desperate before the 2024 season to make a free-agent splash. But his Korean League numbers translated to the AA level here, despite the Giants giving him a hefty contract. He has produced just a .710 OPS and 1.4 WAR in 154 games so far with the team. Yes, he’s just in his age-26 year, but the team owes him $88.3M still through the 2029 campaign.
  • Willy Adames: Once a highly touted prospect, he never has really delivered on that promise (career .758 OPS). Now in his age-29 season, he is hitting just .224 with a .706 OPS for San Francisco this year. This Posey signing is painful, too, as the Giants will owe him $168.9M more through 2031. His defense is mediocre, and at this point, it’s probably not going to get any better. Overall, it was just a bad move.

So, for 2026, these four players alone will cost the San Francisco $96.4M, and if you add in 2026 salaries for starting pitchers Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, the Giants will owe these six players a total of $138.64M. Webb is young and steadily good, while Ray is old and literally could throw his last pitch any day now considering his injury history. That combined salary for six players is more than 15 teams’ 2025 payrolls!

Come 2027, the San Francisco front office already has committed $135.1M to five players alone (Devers, Chapman, Lee, Adames, Webb). In 2028, these same five players will cost the team $134.6M. Things get a little better in 2029, when only four players (Webb will be a free agent and way out the Giants’ price range at that point) will set the team back $110.6M. In 2030, the cost for Devers, Adames, and Chapman is $89M.

By 2031, it will just be Devers and Adames earning a combined $62.1M, and maybe the team can start rebuilding via free agency then. For now, it’s going to be a lot of overpriced, underperforming “stars” in San Francisco, combined with a lot of inexperienced and probably mediocre talent from a farm system that isn’t rated too high by the expert (18th out of 30 teams). The Giants are going to need to do very well in every draft.

Of course, Posey is the Golden Boy in San Francisco, and no one will ever blame him for this mess, even though he is responsible for at least half of it. Also, this is the Giants we’re talking about, and who knows what kind of shenanigans they will pull to try to keep up with the Los Angeles Dodgers. We have seen a lot of players resurrect careers mysteriously in San Francisco, thanks to whatever water they serve in the park.

For now, however, this goose looks cooked for the next handful of seasons, barring a lot of “miracles” again.