Welcome to another edition of Sunday Surmising, as we explore some ideas in the sports history world with mostly regular analysis and commentary. This time, we take on the MLB trade deadline frenzy, which just passed with a reminder that it’s the rich teams that just get richer, while the poorer teams just throw in the towel. As we have pointed out, the most likely way to win the World Series is through TV market size alone.

It was crazy to see teams with already high payrolls just load up at the trade deadline, and then also to see that one of the game’s biggest stars—albeit a fading one—lambasted the commissioner for even bringing up the subject of a salary cap, which the sport desperately has needed for decades now. Such short-sighted vision from players will bring about the end of the financial rewards these players enjoy so much right now.

Like all sports, no fans want to see the same teams winning it all every year—unless they happen to be fans of those select teams. Everyone else will tune out, and since the small echelon of elite teams in contention every year only involves about a third of the sport’s fans, it is inevitable that disaffected fans will tune in elsewhere and spend their hard-earning cash on other forms of entertainment since their teams can’t win.

College football has been making this error for awhile, and the gravy train is running out soon. Baseball should be paying attention, as even the NBA does a better job at making sure “small teams” can win it all. The NFL is still king because of its parity system, and more fans follow the sport and watch the Super Bowl no matter what, due to this wise strategy. It’s pretty basic, too, that greed kills everything good in the world.

Here is a peek at the updated payroll information for the MLB now, after the trade deadline:

  • American League teams projected to make the playoffs and their payroll data with TV market size
    • Detroit: $159M, No. 14 in the US
    • Toronto: $253M, No. 1 in Canada
    • Boston: $197M, No. 9
    • Houston: $231M, No. 6
    • Seattle: $162M, No. 13
    • New York: $298M, No. 1
  • National League teams projected to make the playoffs and their payroll data with TV market size
    • Milwaukee: $113M, No. 38
    • Los Angeles: $341M, No. 2
    • Philadelphia: $289M, No. 5
    • Chicago: $210M, No. 3
    • San Diego: $215M, No. 30
    • New York: $339M, No. 1

The Tigers, the Mariners, the Brewers, and the Padres face the toughest battles here, trying to keep with the other teams and their built-in financial advantages. Teams like Texas ($223M, No. 4), Atlanta ($214M, No. 7), the Los Angeles Angels ($205M), and San Francisco ($174M, No. 10) are on the outside looking in right now, due to poor choices in spending their money and wasting their inherent TV-market advantages. Doh!

Everyone else seems to be fighting for the scraps left over by the big boys. Some of them succeed sometimes, but building a consistent winner without the financial advantages of big TV market size is rare. Milwaukee and San Diego are “small” markets succeeding right now, and the Padres have spent a lot of money to try to move up into the elite realm. This could be the team’s fourth playoff berth this decade.

But the franchise has never won the World Series, having lost in 1984 and 1998. Overall, San Diego has just eight postseason appearances since the team’s inception in 1969. Likewise, the Brewers have just ten playoff berths in the same time frame, without winning a Fall Classic, either. Milwaukee has made the same push as the Padres recently, though, with six of those October admission tickets punched since the 2018 season.

Again, these are anomalies, though, and the odds remain long that a team outside the Top 10 TV markets will win the Series. This is why the trade deadline reaffirmed the reality that the sport needs a salary cap. Otherwise, the fans will slowly tune out; the revenues will slowly drop; and the undeservedly wealthy players will have to accept smaller salaries. With the US economy in for tough times, it’s inevitable, folks.