It’s getting close to that time for the return of the NFL, so here we go with our first NFL Thursday piece in quite some time. Preseason games are just a few weeks away, and then it’s back in the swing of things for America’s favorite sport. Today, we revisit the 2008 NFL Draft, where the first overall pick was an offensive lineman: Jake Long. He played for four teams overall, and he was out of the league within nine seasons.

That doesn’t sound too good, yet Long doesn’t get mentioned as a draft bust often, if ever. He played in every game for his first three seasons before suffering injuries that cost him seven games in his second trio of seasons, and then in his final three seasons, he only appeared in 15 games combined, starting just ten of those. If you’re a No. 1 overall pick and your career declines that sharply, you’re a bust, no matter what else.

But Long has escaped that criticism, probably due to his injuries and the fact he made four Pro Bowls to start his career—although the fourth one was undeserved, possibly. Yet he made All Pro just once in his NFL career (2010), and his Approximate Value (AV) marks dropped off significantly after the first three seasons. The fact he barely played in each of his final three seasons says a lot, too, in terms of his No. 1 overall status.

He’s a bust, folks.

Let’s start by looking at a large part of his myth: the Miami Dolphins’ improvement from 1-15 to 11-5 in his rookie year. First, the team’s SRS ranking in 2007 was 29th out of 32 teams, so it was not the worst team in the league, sabermetrically. Likewise, the Dolphins lost six one-possession games in 2007, which means if they had been a little luckier, this was really at least a four-win team—not a one-victory schmuck. Big diff.

If Miami had been super lucky, it would have been looking at a 7-9 record instead, so split the difference and realize the 2007 Dolphins were more like a five- or a six-win team. That makes the leap in 2008 to 11 victories look a little different, especially when we realize the 2008 roster won seven one-possession games. What made the difference? Luck rebalancing itself out? And, quarterback Chad Pennington, for starters.

He won the Comeback Player of the Year vote, for the second time in three years—and he finished second in the AP vote for league MVP as well. It seems like Pennington had a lot to do with the Miami overnight turnaround, more so than Long. Sure, playing left tackle, Long did a great job protecting Pennington’s blind side. Still … when the Dolphins slipped back to 7-9 in 2009 despite consistency from Long, what happened?

Pennington was hurt, and the Miami front office did not have a good enough replacement for him. That was the same story in 2010, with no decent QB play, as the Dolphins went 7-9 again with Long performing at the same level still. By 2011, he was slipping downward as Miami won just six games, and in 2012, the team had a new coach; all good feelings from 2008 were gone; and by 2013 Long was playing for another franchise.

So … why isn’t Long labeled as a bust? He played in just one playoff game (2008) during his entire career, and that was also the only season he played for a winning team—that winning more to do with the QB, of course, than his own contributions. And it was all downhill from there … with only the Pro Bowl nods really saving him from universal shame as a No. 1 overall pick bust in conversation every spring draft.

Perhaps it is more clear in the list of players drafted after Long in the first round of that 2008 Draft:

  • Matt Ryan, QB (3rd pick): Considering Miami’s inconsistent QB play in the Long era … oops.
  • Ryan Clady, T (12th): A shorter career than Long’s league history—but a better one, nonetheless.
  • Joe Flacco, QB (18th): He is still in the league as a starter, amazingly, having won a Super Bowl MVP.
  • Duane Brown, T (26th): Also still in the league after missing 2024 due to injury. Might retire soon?

Yeah, Long wasn’t even the best tackle in the draft, in the final analysis. And the Dolphins would have been better off picking Ryan, Flacco, or Brown with the first overall pick. This reinforces the reality Long was a wasted pick at No. 1 overall, if not an outright bust due to the short time period for expected level of play of someone picked in that draft slot. Is he the worst No. 1 overall pick ever? No, but he ended up a weak one.