We do a lot of sabermetric analysis here, so for this Tuesday Teasings entry, we are taking on the Golden State Valkyries, currently sitting at 9-9 in WNBA play—good enough for a three-way tie for sixth place in a 13-team league. We didn’t think the team would win ten games this year, really, so it’s been a nice surprise to see the new expansion team do so well, even though the situation could have been so much better, in truth.

For example, Golden State held a four-point lead going into the fourth quarter last night against the fourth-place Atlanta Dream on the road before falling apart in the final 12 minutes of play—and losing by nine points. For the second game in a row, the Valkyries could barely score in the last frame, and this is an issue that will need to be remedied soon if the team wants to keep its playoff-berth standing until September.

Yet this is still a team of scrubs that was denied the first overall pick in the WNBA Draft for some reason, so let’s look at how this is all breaking down for the team, sabermetrically, focusing on the players who have earned regular playing time:

  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): Forward Monique Billings leads the team at 17.6 PER, which trails the league leaders by quite a lot, as two WNBA stars are over 30.0 right now.
  • True Shooting Percentage (TSP): Guard Tiffany Hayes is posting a .576 TSP, which is not great. Then again, alleged superstar Caitlin Clark is much worse (.520). The Valkyries just don’t have a true scorer.
  • Effective Field-Goal Percentage (eFG): Center Temi Fagbenle (.548) tops the roster right now. Again, this number is not stellar. However, Clark is promoted as an MVP player with a .471 eFG mark.
  • Offensive Rating (ORtg): Hayes leads the Valkyries with a 111 mark here, while the best number in the league is over 127 (by Clark’s better teammate, Aliyah Boston). Again, not an impressive number.
  • Defensive Rating (DRtg): Billings’ 98 rating is the best on the team, and this is good enough for fifth in the league, actually, trailing a trio of Minnesota Lynx players in the 93-94 range.
  • Offensive Win Shares (OWS): G Veronica Burton has produced the most offensive value on the team with 1.1 OWS so far. The league leader is at 2.9 OWS right now, though, so we can see what’s what.
  • Defensive Win Shares (DWS): F Kayla Thornton (1.1 DWS) is best on Golden State’s team right now, and ninth in the league, while the WNBA candidates for DPOY are within reach. This is a positive sign.

Stopping right here for a moment, we see the Valkyries’ best five include a backcourt of Hayes and Burton, with the front court made up of Billings, Fagbenle, and Thornton. These are the leading sabermetric players on the team so far; Thornton and Burton have played in all 18 games, while Billings has played in 16 games. Fagbenle missed time going to Europe (13 games), while Hayes has been injured a bit (11 games). So be it.

These five players should be tops, basically, in minutes played per game. They almost are, with Billings being eighth in MP right now, for some reason. We’re not knocking Head Coach Natalie Nakase at all; she’s had a tough time with the roster management changing so much, and the team is still playing .500 ball somehow. But she has to recognize which players are producing the most for her team on a regular basis.

One emphasis to highlight, however, is the team’s defensive leaders are elite in terms of being among the league’s best players. Golden State is second overall in the WNBA for points allowed, which is an amazing accomplishment for this group and as an expansion team in its first season. Hates off to Nakase and her coaching staff for pushing team defense as a selling point to the roster of castoffs and has beens, really.

But we digress … Accordingly, the above five players top the team in overall Win Shares—and they’re the only five players with at least 1.0 WS so far this season at the near-halfway point. When it comes to WS/40, measuring per-minute value, they’re also the top five among regular players. Lesser used players who should be on the court more? Well, let’s see how the WS/40 rankings break down for the rest of the roster:

  • F Chloe Bibby: Second on the team overall in WS/40 (.221)
  • F Laeticia Amihere: Third on the team overall in WS/40 (.162)
  • F Cecilia Zandalasini: Seventh on the team overall in WS/40 (.137)

Bibby has not played now since June 29 and is not on the active roster, currently. Amihere is inexperienced, but she is a spark plug on the floor. Zandalisini missed time in Europe, too, but she is back despite playing just nine minutes on July 5 yet no minutes on July 7. These three players need to be on the floor, too, along with Billings (4th, .150); Hayes (5th, .150); Burton (6th, .147); Thornton (8th, .129), and Fagbenle (9th, .124).

That’s an eight-player rotation, if Nakase wants to get the most out of her team right now. The fact players like G Kate Martin (11th, .049); G Julie Vanloo (16th, -.053); and F Janelle Salaün (15th, .018) have gotten Top 10 minutes per game this season is a huge mistake by the coaching staff. Vanloo was released and is now suiting up for the tenth-place Los Angeles Sparks. Good riddance! No one needs negative value on the team.

But the Valkyries needs to bring Bibby back, while burying Martin and Salaün on the bench. This would leave the team a little thin at guard, but Carla Leite (12th, .047) is four years younger than Martin with international experience and a high upside. She is nursing a back injury, but Leite should be in the backcourt rotation again soon. In addition, Kaitlyn Chen (10th, .081) has shown promise in limited play.

So, here is our preferred, 10-player rotation for the Golden State Valkyries right now, based on sabermetrics:

  • Guards: Burton, Hayes, Leite, Chen
  • Forwards: Billings, Thornton, Amihere, Zandalasini
  • Centers: Fagbenle, Bibby

Bibby is listed as a forward, but her height (6’2″) and weight (194 pounds) puts her in that center slot, too. Billings also can play some center at 6’4″, so the team isn’t limited at the position at all. Either way, we think this is the best rotation going forward for the team as the dog days of summer approach, especially if the Valkyries want to stay in contention for a playoff spot in their debut season, something we never conceived.