The voting for the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame class is way off ahead six months or more, but a list of “notable candidates” was posted by Cooperstown on social media this weekend. And we almost laughed hard enough to spit up the food we were eating at the time. So today, on Sunday Surmising, we’re going to do a quick breakdown of why only one of these players deserves more than one year on the Hall ballot.

Let’s look at them in alpha order, starting with a confirmed PED user:

  • Ryan Braun (47.2 WAR, LF, 24th): There are 21 left fielders in the Hall, and his sabermetrics fall short of those players’ averages. Throw in his PED use, and there’s no way he’s coming close to getting to Cooperstown. His 100-game suspension in 2013 also shows a clear demarcation line in production before then and afterward. We already stripped his 2007 NL ROTY and 2011 NL MVP hardware.
  • Shin-Soo Choo (34.7, RF, 72nd): He spent four years with two different teams trying to establish himself (2005-2008), and once he did in his age-26 season (2009), he was a fun player to watch. He couldn’t play defense at all, though, and that hurt his sabermetric value. We were surprised to see he only made one All-Star team (2018) while realizing the Covid season was his last one in the majors.
  • Edwin Encarnación (35.3, 1B, 63rd): Like the player above, his career WAR is way too low to warrant any HoF consideration. Also a brutal fielder wherever he played—he started at third base before being hidden at 1B and then designated hitter—he didn’t find his groove at the player until age 29, after scuffling around for seven seasons prior. He then had an impressive eight-year stretch at the plate.
  • Gio Gonzalez (28.3, SP, 308th): When you rank 308th at your position in MLB history, you are not a notable candidate for Cooperstown. Hate to break it to the social-media interns at the Hall, but … we’re not that stupid, kids. Most of his best seasons came early in his career (2011, 2012) before he scuffled around for many years after that, with one “comeback” season (2016) in there before retiring.
  • Nick Markakis (33.7, RF, 81st): It’s hard to believe this guy ranks 81st all time at his position, because nothing jumps off his stat sheet. He won three Gold Gloves and posted a 109 OPS+, which surprises us. His lone All-Star appearance came in 2018 when he was in his age-34 season, when he fit the profile for a PED user trying to secure one last contract (which he did, for $10M). Nothing to see here at all.
  • Daniel Murphy (20.8, 2B, 101st): Again, here’s a guy we suspected of PED use a long time ago (as explained elsewhere). His age-31 season saw him post an OPS mark that was higher than his prior best by almost 200 points, for example. Anyway, with a WAR total that low, no one in their right mind is going to vote for this guy getting into Cooperstown with anything but a ticket. Banish those voters!
  • Hunter Pence (30.9, RF, 83rd): This guy was a loon, for sure, and we’ve already discussed his PED probabilities in the House that Steroids Built miniseries, as well. We also laugh at the mythos surrounding him and some alleged speech he made in the 2012 San Francisco Giants’ clubhouse during the playoffs—before hitting just .210 with a .521 OPS that postseason. Whatever. Dismissed.
  • Neil Walker (20.0, 2B, 105th): Come on, man! These “candidates” just keep getting less notable, don’t they? No All-Star appearances, never led the league in any statistical category, negative defender, etc. There is literally nothing on Walker’s profile to suggest he’d even get one vote for Cooperstown. We liked the guy when he played, but that doesn’t mean we’d ever waste time on our ballot thinking of him.
  • Alex Gordon (34.8, LF, 52nd): It is interesting to compare Gordon to Markakis, especially since the former won eight Gold Gloves while posting just a 102 OPS+ in his career. We never realized his bat was so weak, and at least one of those GG vote wins was not deserved. But their career WAR numbers are so close together, yet their positional rankings historically are so disparate. Kind of weird, huh?
  • Cole Hamels (59.0, SP, 72nd): Finally, someone with a career WAR mark over the half-century mark! This denotes “notable” in our minds, and he did it without PEDs, too. However, that positional ranking is pretty low. It shows you how high the threshold is for Cooperstown starters. But he only made four All-Star teams, never led the league in any statistical category, and is known best for the 2008 playoffs.
  • Matt Kemp (21.6, CF, 126th): Again … WHY?! The 121 OPS+ mark is pretty good, but his negative-17.0 dWAR mark is insanely bad. He also won two undeserved GG votes, which blows our minds. He had one monster season at the plate (2011) and really never did much of anything else. No one with a career WAR mark under 30.0 should be on the ballot, ever, really. He’s just placeholding for the 2027 class.
  • Howie Kendrick (35.0, 2B, 58th): When he came up to the majors, everyone slobbered over his swing and projected numerous batting titles. Never happened, although his .294 BA was obviously very respectable. With so-so power, so-so speed, and a so-so glove (4.0 career WAR), there was just nothing special about Kendrick ever. His 109 OPS+ shows him to be above average, and the Hall is for excellent.

So, literally only one of these newcomers to the ballot is even worth consideration (Hamels), and due to his 2008 postseason dominance, he probably will get in. But does he really deserve it? Meh. We don’t care who is returning on the ballot right now—we will take that on in December, perhaps—and what we do know is the hyperbole from the Cooperstown social-media team about “notable” new candidates is pretty much BS.