We take a break on NHL Saturday this week from awards analysis to look at the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The first round of the annual tournament to claim Lord Stanley’s sacred chalice starts tonight, and we like to chime in with our worthless predictions. Our dream is to someday nail all 15 series matchups, even though we know that’s a fruitless exercise in futility every year. Still, one can dream big, right? You betcha.

Winnipeg Jets vs. St. Louis Blues: The Jets posted the best record in the NHL, which is often a curse. But we think they have what it takes to survive the first round, at least. The Blues weren’t the worst team in the Western Conference to make the playoffs; however, they still posted 11 fewer regulation wins than Winnipeg did in the regular season while playing roughly the same schedule strength. Winnipeg in five.

Dallas Stars vs. Colorado Avalanche: These two teams are pretty closely matched, sabermetrically, and also in regulation wins. With Dallas playing slight easier schedule, this literally comes down to a coin flip in our minds. The Stars do have home ice, though, and that can make a huge difference if this goes seven games, as we expect it to do. The Avs certainly are capable of winning, though. Dallas in seven.

Vegas Golden Knights vs. Minnesota Wild: This is another mismatch, just like the Winnipeg-St. Louis series. VGK rates out second sabermetrically, while the Wild really were lucky to make the postseason, as the ninth-best team in the conference (according to the maths). We’d predict a sweep, except we know that the puck rarely bounces the way it’s expected, so we’ll err on the side of caution here, again. Vegas in five.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers: If the defending Western Conference champs are at full strength, we’re not picking against them. We think they rested some players in anticipation of another Cup Finals run. We could be totally wrong, though. On paper and sabermetrically (same thing, in our diction), the Kings are the better team, but we think the Oilers have unfinished business. Edmonton in six.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators: We hate that two Canadian squads have to face off against each other in the first round, because we’d like all five of them in the postseason to advance to the quarterfinals. However, the Maple Leafs are definitely the better team here, and although it’s odd for us to do this, we pick them to win this series in a way that kind of defies logic. Sue us. Toronto in six.

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers: These two teams have won three of the last five Stanley Cups, and they’ve won the last five consecutive Eastern Conference championships as well. One of them isn’t getting far this spring, however. The defending Cup champs are on the short side of the matchup this time, in terms of sabermetrics and regulation wins. Still … it’s gonna be a rock fight. Tampa Bay in seven.

Washington Capitals vs. Montréal Canadiens: One team earned the top seed in the Eastern Conference, while the other team did not. This series should not be close, but again, we have a hard time predicting sweeps. Washington is ready to ride some momentum to another Cup Finals appearance, and the Habs should not do too much to really stand in the way of that journey’s beginning. Washington in five.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. New Jersey Devils: On this Easter weekend, we know what Jesus would do. Alas, we agree that the Hurricanes are the better team in all respects. So, despite a somewhat slim deficit in sabermetrics, we think the Devils will go down hard in this matchup. Just a hunch, nothing more. The key to us here is strength of schedule, where Carolina played a better slate and still topped out. Carolina in five.

Check back with us in a few weeks to see how badly we did with these guesses!