It’s time for more men’s college basketball on Sunday Surmising: we follow up these two pieces (on Gonzaga and the unreliability of the polls) to present our interpretations of the data out there for the NCAA Tournament, a.k.a. March Madness. Now that the bracket has been released, we’re not here to debate that stuff. We’re here to clarify which teams have legitimate chances to win it all, and it’s not a lot of them.

[Although don’t think for a second these seedings aren’t contrived to benefit the $EC, the conference where fans are most rabid and high spending, regardless of the sport.]

But we digress: we are here to clarify the math and emphasize that offensive and defensive efficiency balance is the key to winning it all, historically. And if a lopsided team goes on a deep run into the tournament, it’s usually because it plays elite defense. It’s a rare thing for an elite offensive unit with unbalanced defense efficiency makes a deep tournament run, simply because everyone plays D in March.

The top tier is thin; each subsequent tier has a lower probability of winning it all. We make no guarantees, of course, except that the math doesn’t lie. But a lot is still up to the teams (make shots, grab rebounds, hit free throws, and don’t turn the ball over) and the officiating (no comment). However, it’s very rare for a March Madness to defy history and math. It just is not on the list of probable outcomes here, period.

Tier One: Duke (third on offense, fourth on defense), Florida (first, tenth), Houston (tenth, second)

Any unit in the Top 10 on either offensive or defensive efficiency charts is elite. So these are the only three teams that are truly balanced as elite teams on both ends of the court. Yes, there is that whole transition game, but you don’t win the national title scoring only in transition. The game always comes down to converting offensive opportunities in the half court and deny the same to your opponent on defense.

Each of these three teams is a rightful No. 1 seed, and they can’t face each other until the Final Four.

Tier Two: Auburn (second, 12th), Tennessee (18th, third), Iowa State (20th, ninth)

The Tigers got the undeserved overall top seed for no good reason we can discern, so keep them on upset alert in the Sweet 16, for example. The Vols are in the Cougars’ region, as is Gonzaga—who the committee shafted with a No. 8 seed despite its Top 10 mathematical profile (see below). That side of the bracket could get torn up, easily. The Cyclones are a No. 3 seed in Auburn’s bracket, and they have a tough draw, for sure.

Tier Three: Michigan State (27th, fifth), Gonzaga (ninth, 29th), Maryland (28th, sixth)

These three squads have one elite unit and one very good unit (Top 30). The Spartans are in a region with both Iowa State and Auburn, so that could be a dogfight there, no joke. Gonzaga got shafted, again, by the NCAA, and it’s a pattern, people, that the Bulldogs have overcome a lot in their 26 consecutive years in the Big Dance. The Terps are in a tough region with the Gators, but they are capable of pulling that upset.

Tier Four: Alabama (fourth, 32nd), Texas Tech (sixth, 37th), Wisconsin (13th, 27th), Clemson (24th, 16th)

We view these teams as long(er) shots, due to extreme imbalance, even for the Crimson Tide and the Red Raiders, who have elite offenses. It’s going to be hard for them to stop other teams with merely “good” offenses, and if imbalances occur in deep NCAA runs, it’s usually from the defensive-elite squads. Even so, we’d be surprised if the March Madness winner came from outside these four tiers we have isolated here.

Outlier: St. John’s (65th, first)

We only include the Red Storm because of its defensive ranking, and the 2019 Texas Tech team that made it to the brink of the national title had a similar profile—although not as extreme. St. John’s is in the region as Florida, so we really doubt the Red Storm will make it to the Final Four, let alone the Elite Eight, etc. As soon as the team runs into another elite defense with a better offense, it’s going to be sunk like a Swiss freighter.

Conclusion

So, that’s it. Maybe only 13 or 14 teams here have a real shot. And perhaps we’re being generous, starting with Tier Three. The probability that the national champion will come from the top two tiers above is very strong. Most of these teams above should make it to the Sweet 16, readily, but after that, it’s all about luck and matchups, really. The kids only can control what is put in front of them. Just remember: defense first.

Yes, any team can get hot, but the odds of a North Carolina State 1983 or a Villanova 1985 repeat just are not probable any more. For the last quarter century or so, the math really has born out that almost all the March Madness victors have specific statistical profiles like the ones outlined above. That’s smart money.