The offseason for NFL Thursday marches on as many happenings around the league are developing in anticipation of the March 12 free agency period. Thus, it makes perfect sense for us to analyze some of the historical realities for top players seemingly in the news constantly. Today, we’re going to look at quarterback Sam Darnold, who helped the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-victory season in 2024, surprisingly.

Let’s start with the topical data: He is going to be entering his age-28 season in 2025, and his lifetime record as a starting QB is 35-39, including 0-1 in the postseason. Darnold was drafted No. 3 overall by the New York Jets in 2018 after playing college football at USC; there, he started just 27 games and completed 64.9 percent of his passing attempts. Both those numbers suggested he would not be an immediate success in the NFL.

And he wasn’t. The more starts a college QB gets, the better he is prepared for the professional ranks. Also, the higher the college completion percentage, the better pro quarterback, too. So, Darnold struggled early in his NFL career, posting just a 13-25 record with a bad Jets team from 2018-2020. Some of that record we can place on Darnold’s inexperiences, and a lot of it we can place on the New York Jets being … well, the Jets.

His 78.6 QB rating with New York says a lot about his own development, however. Decent QBs on bad teams still can post decent sabermetric numbers: we always think of Colin Kaepernick on the 2016 San Francisco 49ers. He may have gone 1-10 as a starter that year, but his 90.7 QB rating represented his NFL worthiness. So, Darnold still needed some seasoning, and he found that over the subsequent three seasons (2021-2023).

By his age-25 season in 2022, Darnold seemed to have figured out the professional game: he posted a 92.6 QB rating with the Carolina Panthers in six starts and then enjoyed a season of backup tutelage in San Francisco (2023) as the 49ers made a Super Bowl run. This is why so many college QBs benefit from extra starts at that level—think Brock Purdy, for example—in the sense the game starts to slow down for them.

The Vikings were the beneficiary of all that developing Darnold potential, obviously: they went 7-10 in 2023 with QB issues, drafted a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 Draft, and lost that rookie to an injury. Thus, Darnold was a difference maker in 2024 in doubling the team’s win total, after he had grown and learned at the highest level of play. What we saw in 2024 from him is really what should be expected now.

Of course, like any above-average QB, he will need talent around him to succeed at a comparable level. Running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Justin Jefferson both topped 1,500 yards from scrimmage, and that helped Darnold play better than he has before, utilizing quality weapons like that. Yes, the team as a whole laid an egg in its final two games of the season—both on the road against other NFC playoff teams.

But let’s look at those games: the regular-season finale at Detroit saw the Vikings trailing by one point with less than 18 minutes to go, and the home team just turned it on, first with a 13-play touchdown drive that wore out the Minnesota defense. Darnold answered with a drive that got his team into field-goal range, but the Vikings kicker missed, and the Lions offense used a short field to score yet another TD on Darnold’s D.

All of a sudden, it was a 15-point game in the fourth quarter. Was any of that really Darnold’s fault? No. He didn’t have a turnover, yet the Minnesota defense just collapsed at the end, giving up three consecutive TD drives. Sure, Darnold’s numbers weren’t good, but he still went 5-for-11 after his kicker and his defense gave the game away in the fourth quarter. Those numbers are decent when the other defense can tee off on you.

The Vikings’ confidence sure took a hit from that loss in Detroit, too, as it cost them everything: the division title, the playoff bye, and a home postseason game for the fans. So, on the road against the Los Angeles Rams—a seasoned, veteran team that has been to the playoffs now six times in the last eight seasons, including a Super Bowl win—Minnesota just came out flat emotionally and fell behind 24-3 by halftime.

Darnold’s numbers? Well, in this game, he did have an interception and a fumble, but he played respectably still in his first-ever postseason start (25-for-40). The offensive line didn’t help, though, as he was sacked nine times. How many of those were Darnold’s fault? Hard to say, but conservatively, you might believe he could have thrown the ball away instead, maybe three or four of those instances. So again, context matters.

We wouldn’t let those two starts dim what was otherwise a breakout season for a talented QB entering his prime. Assuming we had skill-position players in place, we’d sign Darnold to a four-year deal ourselves (although probably not at $40M per). What teams could use him at this point? Cleveland, both New York teams, New Orleans, etc. If he is smart, Darnold will sign with a team like the Browns, though. Honestly!

That’s our suggestion. He’d had some good weapons there, and the Cleveland organization is starving.