It seems like we go through this exercise a lot, but here we are again—this time on Sunday Surmising time—reminding people we know to ignore the Associated Press polling. It’s hogwash, as the sports mediots sold out a long time ago in an effort to drive more web traffic in the quest to increase ad revenue. When it comes to men’s college basketball, specifically, though, the math is what you need to follow as demonstrated.

Thus, as we get closer to the start of March—and its resulting madnesses—it’s time again to remember that there are really only a handful of teams with a legit shot at winning the men’s NCAA Tournament championship. And you identify that handful of contenders by mathematical and sabermetric analysis … not by the AP poll rankings. To wit, the math likes Gonzaga, as usual, while the media downplays the team.

Why? Well, one reason could be America’s love affair with the eternal underdogs has come to an end after NCAA title game losses in 2017 and 2021, not to mention the Bulldogs’ impending move to the Pac-X in Fall 2026. Regardless, the mediots see a team with eight losses, have no ability to contextualize anything (or choose not to because they know the audience can’t do it?), and ignore a potential contender for the crown.

Do this at your own risk, folks.

We’ve broken down the handful of contenders’ tiers for the NCAA Tournament championship, to make it simpler for you, based on the existing math. Yeah, in the end, the money might triumph over the math, as we have seen too many times before, but often enough, the math wins out: ask Patrick Mahomes. As we have done in the past, we make no guarantees for betting purposes, but we just present facts and history.

Tier 1 Contenders (with poll rankings, but based on Offensive and Defensive Efficiency ratings)

  • Duke (AP #3)—2nd in offense; 4th on defense
  • Houston (#5)—7th; 3rd
  • Florida (#2)—4th; 7th
  • Auburn (#1)—1st; 11th

Tier 2 Contenders

  • Iowa State (#8)—21st; 8th
  • Arizona (#19)—19th; 17th
  • Maryland (#20)—17th; 20th

Tier 3 Contenders

  • Tennessee (#6)—29th; 1st
  • Michigan State (#14)—23rd; 12th
  • Texas Tech (#9)—11th; 27th
  • Clemson (#18)—16th; 26th

Tier 4 Contenders

  • St. Mary’s (NR)—38th; 9th
  • Michigan (#12)—26th; 23rd
  • Wisconsin (#11)—9th; 37th

Tier 5 Contenders

  • Louisville (#25)—22nd; 30th
  • Alabama (#4)—3rd; 45th
  • Purdue (#13)—8th; 47th
  • Gonzaga (NR)—10th; 41st

Miracle Possibilities

  • Texas A&M (#7)—52nd; 6th
  • Kansas (#23)—56th; 5th
  • Missouri (#15)—6th; 52nd
  • Kentucky (#17)—5th; 64th

That’s about it. No team outside these groups will win the NCAAs; we almost can guarantee that. Generally, balance is best, of course, so any teams with Top 20 ratings on both ends of the court have the best chances. Only six teams currently match that description, and they’re all in the top two tiers here. Those schools are your best bets right now, regardless of record or rank. There are always exceptions, though. Let us explain.

Tennessee’s profile is close to that of Texas Tech in 2019, when the Red Raiders made a run to overtime of the title game before losing to Virginia. Defense wins titles more than offense does, and keeping this in mind, the lopsided teams like Tennessee have more probabilities than the offensive-minded ones like Missouri and Kentucky, for example. Likewise, St. Mary’s has a better shot than Wisconsin in Tier 4.

Teams like Michigan have great balance without having elite units at either end of the court; those teams can go on runs, too, depending on the seedings in March Madness and how the cookies crumble in other games around them. Remember when the Wolverines made that Final Four run in 2018 before getting blown out in the title game? They did so by beating a 14-seed, a 7-seed, a 6-seed, a 9-seed, and an 11-seed.

There is no accounting for that kind of luck in advance of the tourney, of course, so that’s why we have these various tiers and the “miracle” category, too. Just remember. the higher one of the efficiency rakings is, the less likely the team has a legit shot in March—no matter what the mediots and the pollsters project: looking at you, Alabama and TAMU. It’s also no coincidence those teams are in the SEC, is it? Nope. None?

We will update these tiers over the next few weeks before the Madness starts, but keep all the data in mind.