This was our first NFL Thursday miniseries if the audience remembers, going all the way back to March 2020. Seems like a lifetime ago, of course, because … it was. We now just do these entries once a year, to keep the series current with the times, and with the Super Bowl now behind us, it’s time to look at the singular MVP award for the NFL, and it was split this year (surprise) between two players. No one knew?

2024 MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo (original AP) & Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore (original PFWA); Allen (revised)

For the first time since 2003, there was a split MVP situation, with Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen winning the AP vote, and Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson winning the PFWA vote. This is Allen’s first vote win and Jackson’s third (2019, 2023), although we did not agree with the voters those two times prior. Will the third time be a charm for Jackson? We shall see, but we also have some other candidates to assess.

First, a lot of defensive players had good seasons, but no single player had what we might call an outstanding season worthy of the MVP conversation. We could list the handful of defenders who had the “good” years, but we’d be wasting column inches, since none of them can beat out the offensive stars this season offered us. Even those skill-position players on the offense are going to have to be whittled down.

Consider the case of Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase: he won the receiving Triple Crown with 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdown receptions. That’s a stellar season, but it’s not going to rate when we put him next to Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley (2,005 rushing yards with 13 TDs) and/or Ravens RB Derrick Henry (1,921 yards with 16 TDs). And then we have the two QBs, to boot.

Allen topped the NFL in QBR, the sabermetric created by ESPN, although Jackson tied him there. The Baltimore superstar also topped the league in TD percentage, yards per attempt, and QB rating—while also running for almost 400 more yards than Allen did. Overall, it’s clear Jackson was the better player this year, but in terms of value, he was aided by the presence of Henry in his backfield. That’s problematic, of course.

It’s time to go back to our old “Triplets” analysis here for our finalists, since Henry and Jackson cancel each other out as teammates; this is a rough break for Jackson, who is a stellar player and had his best season ever. He won’t be getting our nod, once again, simply due to circumstance and team quality around him. Those are the waters, of course, that all have to navigate on their way to winning historical accolades.

There’s also the issue here that the Bengals missed the postseason: that eliminates Chase from consideration here, so we end up with Barkley and Allen, only. Here’s our Triplet analysis:

  • Allen: RB with 1,267 total yards and 18 TDs; WR with 825 total yards. Allen himself ran for 13 TDs, too.
  • Barkley: QB with 103.7 QB rating and 32 total TDs; two WRs with combined 1,913 total yards.

The third-best skill-position player on Buffalo’s roster managed just 631 total yards, and Allen did a lot of dirty work himself with those rushing TDs. He tossed 28 TDs, as well. So, Allen had running game help, but not a lot of his receivers were truly “good”: he had only two receivers with more than 450 yards, in fact. Allen really needed to spread the ball around. Barkley? His QB ran for a lot of TDs, too, and the WRs? Good.

Then there is the issue of defense: the Eagles topped the NFC with only 303 points allowed, while the Bills defense finished seventh in the AFC with 368 points allowed. That is a lot more pressure on Allen to produce, with less help, than for Barkley. Thus, we confidently give this award to Allen, surprisingly, as we didn’t think anyone could top Jackson’s statistical profile: “Best” is not always the same as “most valuable”!

Maybe Allen is not cursed after all, eh?