We offer a surprise entry today in our random MLB Random Player Analysis sequence: free agent Alex Bregman. He is still on the market right now as 2025 Spring Training begins, and he’s seeking a lot of money. We say right now to any smart teams: do not do it! Not only does he turn 31 at the end of March, but he literally has never been the “same” since the Houston Astros’ cheating scandal was exposed after 2019.

Buyer beware.

In Bregman’s first three full seasons (2017–2019), which represent the span of the cheating scandal, he posted OPS marks of .827, .926, and 1.015—which is really impressive. However, since 2020, his highest OPS mark has been the .820 mark he put up in 2022, when the team won a second World Series. So basically, he hasn’t been able to replicate or really come near the sign-stealing success he had earlier.

His OPS marks from 2020 to 2024 read like a player in decline already: .801, .777, .820, .804, and .768 last year. There is no reason to expect he would get any better now that he is entering his age-31 season with 99 additional playoff games on his slate. His glove work does remain solid, as he won his first Gold Glove in 2024 with a second-straight 1.0 dWAR effort. His 6.5 career dWAR, however, over nine seasons, is just meh.

Again, at his age, he’s not going to suddenly get better unless he follows the lead of former teammate Justin Verlander, of course. Who knows what kind of person Bregman is? He went along with the sign stealing, of course, but will he double down on cheating and do PEDs, too? Will he emulate his former manager, Dusty Baker, who enabled cheaters his entire managerial career? We don’t know Bregman, so we can’t say.

However, he turned down a six-year, $156M offer to stay with the Trashstros, so he expects to get more elsewhere. Any team that signs this guy is asking for a lot of a hurt down the line, if not right away. His .315 OBP last season was the worst of his career in a full season, as were his mere 44 walks in a strong lineup. All the signs are pointing downward, even if his career OPS on the road is higher than his OPS in Houston.

By four points only (.860 to .856), of course. That’s probably because the majority of his career now has been without sign stealing now, though. Last year, his home OPS was 29 points higher (.784 to .755), so we’re not sure how that much-touted data point matters as he turns 31 and changes home ballparks. Sure, maybe he could go to Fenway, and regardless if he becomes a Fraud or not, he’s going to hit a little bit better, for sure.

So, again, buyer beware. Bregman is not a smart signing, no matter how desperate your team is to win right now. His 4.1 WAR mark was the second lowest of his career, the only worse season being the 4.0 WAR he posted in 2017. These are not good metrics for an aging ballplayer looking to make one last big score with a huge contract. We’ve been right on these things so many times before; we’re not going to bother citing it all.