Every so often on NFL Thursday we are not really sure what we will write about until we start actually typing on the keyboard. This is one of those weeks: until now, there wasn’t an idea in our minds to run with through the drafting gauntlet. But then we took a glance at the 2024 NFL standings, and something jumped out at us: scoring differentials. This is a finite, zero-sum equation for the 32 teams, collectively, of course.

However, the individual stories are fascinating, so we’re going to go through them below for fun. A scoring deficit usually indicates a bad team; a positive margin, of varying degree, usually suggests a team that is better than average. And of course, the best predictor of future performance? Is the current point differential between what the offense has put on the scoreboard—and what the defense has allowed, too.

Think about the 2011 New York Giants (although we try not to): they remain the only team to ever win the Super Bowl after posting a negative scoring differential in the regular season (minus-6). Somehow, the 25th-ranked scoring defense then flipped a switch for this 9-7 team in the playoffs, and the Giants outscored four postseason opponents by a combined 100-56 margin. We have theories on this, of course.

Admittedly, N.Y. was barely below water, but in the run to the championship, they faced four teams that had produced a combined plus-575 scoring margin during the regular season: how is that even possible? It should not have been, obviously, but that’s why they play the games, evidently. The Giants were the 13th-best team in the NFL that season, according to sabermetric calculations; this is the flukiest NFL champ ever, no doubt.

But we digress: what about 2024?

  • The Detroit Lions had the highest scoring margin overall (plus-222), but they lost their first postseason game at home by 14 points to a team with a mere plus-94 differential.
  • With 15-2 records, the Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs posted the best marks in the league. Yet the Chiefs’ scoring differential (plus-59) was surprisingly low. It included a 38-0 loss in Week 18 when the team rested almost all its key players, however. But Kansas City won 11 of its games by one score or less, which is incredibly lucky. Both its losses came by multiple-score margins.
  • The Los Angeles Rams posted the worst scoring margin (minus-19) of any playoff team, yet they managed to win one playoff game by 18 points over a team that was plus-100 in the regular season. L.A. then lost its second postseason game by six points to a team that was plus-160 during the year.
  • The Houston Texas finished the regular season with an even-0 scoring mark; they beat the Los Angeles Chargers (plus-101) by 20 points in the first round of postseason play before losing to the Chiefs by nine points in the second round of the playoffs.

These tidbits seem to violate that maxim above about predictive performance, but other results in the postseason have held serve, so to speak. Baltimore (plus-157) beat Pittsburgh (plus-33) by 14 points; Buffalo (plus-157) beat Denver (plus-114) by 24 points; and Philadelphia (plus-160) beat Green Bay (plus-122) by 12 points. In the most interesting result, the Bills beat the Ravens by two points in an even matchup, really.

The two-point margin? Comes within the three-point range generally offered to the home team in any given football face-off, so in that case, the maxim seemed to be spot-on perfect. In the upcoming conference championship games, both Buffalo and Philadelphia hold the scoring-margin advantages, but don’t ask up to predict the final scores or the eventual Super Bowl champion. We know better than that now, don’t we?