We’re taking on a burning question for San Francisco Bay Area sports fans today on NBA Tuesday: why are the Golden State Warriors so inconsistent? With a 21-21 record now at roughly the halfway point of the regular season, the Warriors are 11th in the Western Conference with a lot of work to do in order to reach the postseason. This is a team that has won 90 games in the two full seasons since winning the 2022 title.

They won’t reach 45 victories this season without some changes—and perhaps some better health. The latter is something that can happen to every team, and these days, NBA players take a game off when they have a hangnail, so it’s complicated. But the coaching staff needs to adapt again, unlike it’s been able to recently. The Top 10 value players on the roster are not the Top 10 players in usage, and there’s your issue.

Top Value: PG Stephen Curry (3.4 WS), C Trayce Jackson-Davis (2.7), SF Andrew Wiggins (2.6), C Kevin Looney (2.2), PF Draymond Green (1.5), PF Jonathan Kuminga (1.4), PF Kyle Anderson (1.4), SG Buddy Hield (1.3), SG Gary Payton II (1.2), SG Brandon Podziemski (1.2).

Top Usage: Curry (28.7%), Kuminga (27.7), Wiggins (23.0), Hield (21.6), SG Dennis Schröder (20.9), SG Moses Moody (19.2), Jackson-Davis (16.7), Podziemski (15.8), Green (15.7), Anderson (15.7). This is the percentage of team plays used by a player while they were on the floor.

Curry is the aging star of this team, and he is still the best player. But he needs rest, but TJD is being drastically underused, when he’s producing so much value without getting enough usage. This was a problem last season, too, so while we don’t like second guessing a great coach like Steve Kerr, we have to wonder why TJD doesn’t get a lot more playing time. It’s killing this team to not give him minutes/usage.

Kuminga is hurt right now, but despite his counting stats (16.8 ppg), he’s not worthy of that usage number: he should be replaced in the starting lineup, in essence. Wiggins is fine right where he is, but look at Looney—high value, low usage (14.5%). Another coaching error, basically. Hield is also getting too much playing time, as is Schröder, a new acquisition who is actually producing negative value right now (-0.1 WS). Ouch.

We know the Warriors can’t go with a “tall” lineup of Curry with TJD, Wiggins, Looney, and Green all the time; someone has to be able to play guard at a decent value and usage rate. Hield and Schröder are not the answers, and neither is Moody (0.9 WS). Payton is being underused (14.4%), and Pods—who is also hurt—should be playing steadily to relieve Curry when necessary. That duo is the best bet in the backcourt now.

So, three guys need to be prepared to see the vast majority of minutes at guard: Curry, Pods, and Payton. And four guys should heed the call in the front court: TJD, Wiggins, Looney, and Green. We do realize Curry and Green are old with a lot of mileage on their legs, so one extra backup in each area of court play is a plus here. We’re looking at a nine-man rotation now with the core seven plus Kuminga and a guard TBD later.

Perhaps the team can flip Hield and Schröder for someone better, and we can’t pretend we know the NBA salary cap well enough to even know if this is even possible. In fantasy basketball, it would be easy, but that’s what makes it a fantasy sport, right? In the real world, it’s a lot harder to figure out a puzzle like this, but none of the other current backcourt pieces fit right at all. If Golden State wants to make a run, it’s time.

(And no, Klay Thompson was not the answer: he’s currently ninth on the Dallas Mavericks roster in value and seventh in usage there. As for Jordan Poole? He’s third in value for the Washington Wizards with less than 1.0 WS, but he’s first in usage there, of course. Neither would be helping the situation in San Francisco right now, especially with the amount of money they’d be making. Chris Paul should have been retained!)