Today on NFL Thursday, we look at one of the most annoying things about the modern-media hype machine: lack of context for records “set” in longer regular seasons. The latest example is the NFL single-season rushing record, which could be broken by either Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley or Baltimore Ravens RB Derrick Henry—or both, really. The hyperbole is already flying about here, sadly.

The current record was set in a 16-game season in 1984 by Los Angeles Rams legend Eric Dickerson, and the previous standard was set by Buffalo Bills star O.J. Simpson in a 14-game season (1973). It’s a slippery slope now that the season is a 17-game proposition. We’ve done projections here to demonstrate what we mean, in terms of looking at yards per game as the better indicator of what a record should be:

  • Simpson: 143.1 yards per game in 1973 for 2,003 rushing yards total
  • Dickerson: 131.6 ypg in 1984 for 2,105 total
  • Barkley: 124.9 ypg in 2024 for 1,499 total (so far; projects out to 2,124 yards)
  • Henry: 108.2 ypg in 2024 for 1,407 total (so far; 1,840 yards projected)

Henry already achieved a 2,000-yard season in 2020 with the Tennessee Titans, when he posted 126.7 ypg at age 26. Now he’s in his age-30 season and not quite as effective, despite playing with a real quarterback for the first time in his career. Additionally, nothing in Barkley’s past statistical record suggested he was capable of this, as his best ypg mark prior to this season was 82.0 ypg in 2022 during his age-25 season.

As for Simpson, he was in his age-26 year, while Dickerson was a mere pup in his age-24 campaign. Running backs take a lot of abuse in the NFL, so their peak years are often in this 24-28 age range. Henry is defying the odds a bit, but each of these seasons has something in common: a lot of carries. Simpson toted the rock 332 times in 1973; Dickerson 379 times in 1984. Barkley is on pace for 349 carries this year, as well.

Henry is projected for a mere 314 carries, in comparison, so we probably count him out of this chase, barring some very long touchdown runs in his final four games. Barkley has never carried the ball more than the 295 times he did in 2022, so his usage rate is very high already. Simpson’s mark topped the NFL that year, although Dickerson’s carry total did not do the same in 1984. That’s an interesting difference.

But Simpson stands out here, as his 143.1 ypg effort is the best in NFL history for a single season. That should be the record that the media focuses on, truly, but it’s not “sexy” and doesn’t sell as much to the average fan, who is clueless about statistical realities. Considering most Americans only have a rudimentary understanding of math, it’s better to use a bulk total for ease of comprehension, evidently.

Barkley’s ypg effort, so far, with four games to play, rates out as the 14th-best season in NFL history, while Henry’s 2020 season is the 11th-best season ever. Inside the Top 10? Two Simpson seasons (1973, 1975); two Jim Brown seasons (1958, 1963); and single seasons by all-time greats Walter Payton (1977); Dickerson (1984); Adrian Peterson (2012); Jamal Lewis (2003); Earl Campbell (1980); and Barry Sanders (1997).

Most of these seasons resulting in an NFL MVP nod, from either official voting processes or our analyses here. The exceptions are Dickerson in 1984 and Lewis in 2003, due to extenuating circumstances. It’s ironic, too, that Dickerson’s record didn’t get him an MVP nod. And even this year, there isn’t a lot of noise about Barkley for the MVP, thanks to other players having more value to their respective teams. That’s telling.

The Eagles RB was just fifth in a pre-Thanksgiving estimate by some experts for MVP odds, for example: most people recognize the Philadelphia offensive line and QB Jalen Hurts to be big reasons for the Eagles’ success, which isn’t reliant on Barkley, at all, considering the team’s 25-9 regular-season record in the prior two seasons before he came to town this year. Yes, Philly is 10-2 this year, but it’s not much different overall.

There is also the matter of saving Barkley’s body and legs for the playoffs: the Eagles want to win the Super Bowl. They will rest Barkley down the stretch if needs be in order to give themselves the best shot at that reality. Henry’s team has more work to do right now than Barkley’s team, in this similar aim. Those projections above are “optimistic”—again, because of context. Not every situation is created equally, obvi.

Regardless, in the end, context always matters; smart fans and media members recognize this; and shallow observers and hyperbole ignore it just to get attention. It boils down to whether people want to be informed or they want to be sheep. You choose; we’ll provide the contextual and factual data for you here, either way.