As we have explored a few times in the last year-plus on NFL Thursday, we really want to see teams in the Super Bowl that have never been there—ever. With today’s way-too-close win on Thanksgiving Day, the Detroit Lions’ first since 2016, the team is now 11-1 with a ten-game winning streak for the first time in team history. The Lions have the inside track to securing home-field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which is big.

We know the Detroit offense is in good hands, but after today’s game, we’re wondering about its consistency—and the Lions defense. The team could have won this game by 20 points, but it struggled to score touchdowns against the lowly Chicago Bears and had to settle for four field-goal attempts, one of which was missed. Then, after shutting out the opponent in the first half, the Lions defense nearly choked it.

The 23-20 victory wasn’t sealed until the very end, thanks to the rookie mistakes by Bears quarterback Caleb Williams. Detroit’s defense has definitely missed its biggest star, defensive lineman Aidan Hutchinson (our pick for the 2022 ROTY, if you recall, when we first noted how overrated the New York Jets were going to be in 2023). He might be back in time to play in the Super Bowl, but … gotta get there?

Almost blowing a 16-0 halftime lead at home with a roaring crowd and stalling in the second half against one of the worst teams in the league—the Bears have now lost six games in a row—doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in the Lions. How will the rest of their season play out? It all depends, perhaps, on what they do in the next 7 days before the next game: at home, next Thursday, against the rival Green Bay Packers.

With five games left, this is how we see it playing out for Detroit. They win next week at home in the same fashion as they beat the Bears: a close, one-possession game that ends in a victory. Then, the Lions get 10 days to rest before hosting one of the AFC’s best teams, the Buffalo Bills, also at home in Detroit. That’s going to be a big game: many will call it a potential Super Bowl preview, and the Lions will be rested for it.

They win it, again in close fashion to move to 13-1. After that, Detroit has two road games: at Chicago, where the weather could be a factor, and at San Francisco, where the Lions got knocked out of the playoffs in heartbreaking fashion last January. The game at Soldier Field is one of the few this year that Detroit has to play outdoors, and if all goes well, these two games will be the last the Lions play outside of a domed field.

We suspect the Lions, who possess a strong running game, can win in bad weather Chicago, before heading to S.F. for an emotional rematch. But the 49ers are reeling right now, with a 5-6 record and a road game at Buffalo looming this weekend. Heck, San Francisco could be eliminated from the postseason by Week 17. We will see. However, we see Detroit winning both these road games before closing at home against Minnesota.

That game could mean everything—or nothing. Depending how the games unfold by then, the Lions already may have clunched home field for the postseason, depending on how the Vikings, currently one game behind Detroit in the NFC Central, and the Philadelphia Eagles (also 9-2 right now) play the next four games. We’re guessing the game will mean nothing to the Lions, so they may lose it as the Vikings need it.

So, with a 15-2 record and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, we think Detroit it still on track to reach its first Super Bowl ever. We’re rooting for them, but they have to play better than they did today … that’s for certain.