Last summer, during our MLB GOAT miniseries analysis, we looked at Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout and his place among all-time greats. What we wrote in the final assessment for Trout was this: ” … maybe [he] may have a second wind to his career as he moves into his mid-30s.” Well, he only got 29 games in this 2024 season as injuries once again short-circuited his year. This is seemingly common now for him.

From 2012-2019, Trout averaged 145 games per season and made 8 All-Star teams. However, from 2021-2024 now, he has managed just 67 games a year—while still making 3 more All-Star squads (2021-2023). His career OPS (.991) has dropped a lot in the last two seasons combined (2023-2024, just 111 games), as his mark during those two years is just above .860 … which is still pretty good, yet not the Trout we once knew.

So, he turned 33 years old earlier this month, and technically, he’s on the downside of his career now, if we want to use historical data to recognize that a player’s prime ends around his age-32 season, generally, and with his recent injury history, it doesn’t look like Trout is going to have an extended prime—despite obviously being a pre-eminent talent in the first part of his career. This reminds us all of why some cheat.

But we digress: Trout is going to have an uphill climb trying to stay healthy the longer he plays. The demarcation line in his career arc is the Covid season of 2020: a lot happened to him, mentally and psychologically, that year, and we wonder if it didn’t change some of his perspectives on the sport that has made him so wealthy. A lack of focus can account for his declining production and the injury bug, too.

Yet get this: While Trout has pocketed approximately $282M in his career so far, the Angels still owe him another $223M over the next six seasons, which would take him to 2030 and his age-38 season (although he would be 39 by the time that year ended). It would be hard for him to walk away from that deal, and we suspect he will finish out his career with the Angels. Yet we wonder if he’s just going to play out the string.

We’d put the over/under line on how many games a season he will average over the next six years at about 81, in truth. We want to believe his talent will win out in the end, although it’s hard to have confidence in that considering the numbers above, in terms of both games-played and OPS declines. One thing is for sure, however: we will not be drafting Mike Trout ever again in any fantasy baseball leagues. Bet on that.