When we confirmed Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić as the 2024 NBA MVP, we started thinking about his place in league history: he sits atop two key sabermetric lists right now, and he’s only 29 years old. So there is a lot of time left in his career to either solidify those positions—or fall from them (which is more likely, in terms of career peaks, etc.). So, let’s look at these situations and analyze them both for a moment.
First, Player Efficiency Rating: it “includes positive accomplishments such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls” according to its developer. Most people just look at points scored and decide on a player’s quality, of course, and that’s very deceiving, as we have discussed way too many times here: counting stats.
Jokić is tops on the PER list all time, ahead of Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Shaquille O’Neal, David Robinson, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Pettit, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Kevin Durant. That list includes six centers, including Jokić, but it also includes four very versatile players as well, obviously: guys who could play in the backcourt, the wing, and the front court, as well. Adaptability matters.
Second, Win Shares per 48 Minutes Played: the sabermetric value measurement of Win Shares is even more informative when you analyze it in terms of time on the court, rather than an aggregate season total. How much does an individual player contribute to his team’s success on a per minute basis? We know not all minutes are created equal, but a player can only do what they can do in the moments they’re on the court.
Once again, Jokić is No. 1 all time for WS/48, followed by Jordan, Robinson, Chamberlain, Neil Johnston, Chris Paul, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Magic Johnson, James, and Rudy Gobert. Again, we see six centers on this list, but also one pure point guard and three versatile guys like discussed above. The game is basketball, of course, and height is an advantage, so we just have to accept that reality here for sabermetrics.
With Jokić, Jordan, and James on both lists, you have to wonder if the game is tilted toward players with “J” surnames, though, right? We’re kidding, of course, but any list of all-time greats needs to start with five players right now (including the Admiral and the Stilt). That’s how good both James (across 21 seasons) and Jokić (across 9 seasons) have been as NBA superstars—on par with Chamberlain, Jordan, and Robinson, too.
