It’s a been a month or so since we checked in on the WNBA Clark Watch, and the results since then have been mixed. The Indiana Fever improved to 8-12 overall, and Caitlin Clark finally has a Win Shares valuation above water (0.2 WS, .014 WS/48). That’s a positive, for sure. However, the overall WS mark still ranks seventh on her own team, as does the WS/48 number. That literally means she’s a bench warmer.
And here’s one major reason why: through half a WNBA season, Clark has 112 turnovers. The all-time “record” for full season is 137 turnovers. At this pace, Clark is going to blow that mark out of the water by almost 64 percent. But you won’t hear a peep from the media about it, guaranteed. For example, she shot 4-for-14 from the floor on Sunday, but here was the headline: “Clark delivers in Fever win” … delivers what?
We’ve discussed this before about guys like Kobe Bryant: you don’t get credit for a comeback that was necessary because you couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn for the first major chunk of game time. Clark was 2-for-10 from downtown, which is atrocious, so giving her credit for anything to do with this win is a little disingenuous. Yes, she did have 12 assists, which is amazing, and she also snared 9 rebounds. Awesome.
But again, the team wouldn’t have needed a comeback if she hadn’t been so dreadful with her shots. It’s nice she made up for a bad shooting night with the dimes and the boards, but she also committed 6 turnovers. Do the math: 21 good things and 16 bad things. That’s why her Win Shares valuation is barely in the positive range, because she’s all over the place. It’s fine: she’s young and will learn and probably get a lot better. But …
Everyone slobbers all over her when she’s actually pretty average right now. She’s sixth on her own team in Effective Field Goal percentage, and she’s fourth on her own team in True Shooting Percentage—thanks to her ability to hit free throws at an 88-percent rate. But she’s seventh on her team in 3-point percentage (.346), which is pretty bad. She’s also sixth on her team in 2-point percentage (.488), which is passable/solid.
Put it all together: she’s totally unpredictable, game to game, and while the Fever did go 13-27 last year, they’re only pace this year for a 16-24 finish. The best players on the team, sabermetrically, are not even coming close to Clark in usage rate, so the more she plays, the less the best players on the team get the ball—even with her assist rate (138 assists, most in the league!), because she is mediocre shooter and a TO dog.
Basketball is a game most people still do not understand in terms of value: they see points, rebounds, and assists, and they don’t understand the shooting percentages, the difference in impact between a defensive rebound and an offensive rebound, and the fact that a bad shooter should be passing the ball a lot to players on the team that are more effective shooters. We do give Clark credit for that: when it’s not falling, dish it!
We low-lighted her shooting percentages above, but only 0.5 of her total 5.7 rebounds per game are offensive boards. That’s an interesting split which shows a false confidence in her own shot, even if it also reveals a positive tenacity to play some defense. Again, we know she’s tired, and we expect her to be better next year, but until then, you can’t anoint someone when they’re just not even close to the top of the heap.
