Most MLB teams have played close to 80 games now in a 162-game regular season, and the All-Star Game will be played in a few weeks around mid July as normal—always a bit beyond the halfway point of the season. For now, we want to just run down a list of amusing things we see going on sabermetrically and statistically with the standings, the teams, and various other observations that have caught our eye(s).
Let’s start with the standings:
- Despite just a 38-40 record, the Tampa Bay Rays are exceeding their Pythagorean projection by 5 or 6 wins, thanks to an unsustainable 15-7 record in one-run games. Look for them to come back to the ground there a bit in the second half, thus falling even more so under .500 for the season.
- Conversely, perhaps the Cincinnati Reds are due for a rebound in the second half: their 36-41 record is about 3 or 4 victories lower than it should be, thanks to their bad fortune in one-run games (6-14). Sometimes this luck doesn’t change in the same season, of course, but they should be better soon.
- The Seattle Mariners rate out just 12th in sabermetric achievement so far, but they are the only team in the AL West playing above .500 baseball right now. They are 17-9 in one-run games, while their closest division pursuer—the Houston Astros—are 5-14 in one-run games. That accounts for the 5.5-game gap between the two clubs in the standings. Keep an eye on fortunes and managerial moves there.
- We love the Playoff Odds page on Baseball-Reference.com, and as of right now, this is how the postseason projects: Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Milwaukee, Atlanta, San Diego, and New York (!) in the National League, along with New York, Cleveland, Seattle, Baltimore, Minnesota, and Kansas City (!) in the American League. We use the exclamations as those two franchises have just 2 wild-card appearances between them since they faced off in the 2015 World Series (both by the Mets, in fact).
Here’s some fun tidbits about individual teams, not related to the standings, directly:
- The Trashstros lead the majors in hitting with a .262 batting average. However, they are just seventh in OBP, fifth in SLG, and fifth in OPS. They are 25th in drawing walks, interestingly enough. All this amounts to being 13th in runs scored, which presents quite an interesting dichotomy for the team.
- With a 50-26 record so far, Cleveland is actually the youngest team in the majors, averaging 26.2 years for the players on the active roster (this often fluctuates, of course). The Milwaukee Brewers (26.7) and the Oakland Athletics (26.9) round out the Top 3. It’s a good sign for 2 of those teams that they are projected to make the postseason right. Guess which team is not going to make it on youth alone?
- The New York Yankees “lead” the majors with 76 GDPs, which is odd, considering they’re also third in runs scored (399) and third in OPS (.760). If the Bronx Bombers could avoid hitting into double plays, perhaps they’d be even better than they are right now. Someone should get George Costanza in there to help the hitters remedy this anomaly.
- The aforementioned Mariners “top” the majors in strikeouts at the plate, which could explain the team’s 29th-ranked batting average (.220) and mediocre .670 OPS mark. If Seattle wants to hold on to its advantage in the AL Worst, the team better learned to make more contact and get some more hits.
Finally, just a few observations on some individual performances worth keeping an eye on:
- Seven of the Top 10 positional players for WAR this season are in the American League, led by Baltimore infielder Gunnar Henderson (5.6) and New York outfielder Aaron Judge (5.3). There’s a gap between those two guys and the top NL “position player”—Los Angeles designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (4.3).
- Cleveland outfielder Steven Kwan, who we once covered when he played college baseball for the Oregon State Beavers, is hitting .389 through only 50 games played. That’s probably why he hasn’t generated more attention for this feat, of course, but if he is still hitting that well come the end of July, watch out for the mounting pressure from an overzealous media corps.
- Colorado Rockies pitcher Dakota Hudson has lost 10 games so far through 15 starts. We covered the phenomenon of losing 20 games in a season earlier this year, and he could be a good candidate. The Rox stink, and Hudson has only logged 76 2/3 IP in his 15 starts. After 6 decent seasons in St. Louis with a 3.84 ERA, he’s struggled in Colorado to the tune of a 5.63 ERA. Keep a close eye on this one.
- Royals starter Seth Lugo is having a career year at age 34, with a career-best 10 wins already and a 2.42 ERA through 104 IP. His career high in innings pitched came last year, at age 33, with 146 1/3 IP. Last season was his first MLB season as a full-time starter, and for his first 7 seasons (with the Mets), he was used as a spot starter, long reliever, and rare closer. How his arm holds up now is the question.
